The national view for 2010

It strikes me that Democrats and Republicans both have big problems to solve before next year’s mid-terms, in order to prevail.

1. Republicans have to tame, temper and harness their conservative base. Right now 2010 is shaping up as a referendum on President Obama and the economy. That’s good for the GOP. But if, as in NY-23, voters are forced instead to focus on intra-party ideological feuds (and Glenn Beck’s lunacy) that’s bad for the GOP. Americans like two-party government. But they’re still leery of the wacky, dysfunctional Bush-era GOP.

2. Democrats have to start showing significant progress on unemployment. They need to have a big prize or two that makes their liberal base happy (healthcare? climate change?). And to bring independent voters back, the White House needs to begin seriously curtailing the deficit. Some economists say it’s too soon to start hacking down the national debt, but independent voters aren’t economists.

I see little evidence that Republicans will retake majorities in either house of Congress next year. But whichever party addresses these problems best will outperform expectations.