Can the Republican Party compete statewide in NY? Yes.

Memo to Republicans: Of New York state’s 19 million people, 8.2 million live in of New York City.

But when I talked to Assembly minority leader Brian Kolb this week, he downplayed his party’s ability to compete in the five boroughs.

“The chances of a Republican carrying a majority of New York City voters is pretty tough just based on the sheer [Democratic enrollment] numbers. Traditionally, a lot of people vote the party line.”

Which begs the question: Why are so many City voters registered as Democrats?

Partly it’s a race thing, sure. But even that begs a question: Why can’t Republicans in New York state craft a message that appeals to African Americans and Hispanics?

But the broader truth is that the GOP’s national brand — increasingly southern, increasingly conservative on social issues — has alienated the Northeast’s urban culture.

I can’t help but wonder what would happen if Republicans in the Empire state crafted a defiantly moderate stance, one that articulated a very different vision from the party’s leadership in Washington.

What if the GOP here followed the lead of lawmakers like Teresa Sayward, Janet Duprey and Dede Scozzafava, focusing on fiscal conservatism but stoutly and firmly rejecting the pro-life and anti-gay-marriage planks?

To recast the party’s brand in New York, Republicans would first have to do three things:

1. Rebuild some credibility on fiscal issues. The trial of Sen. Joe Bruno has lifted the curtain on the GOP’s willingness to feed from the taxpayer trough. And we’ve learned the hard way that many of Governor George Pataki’s fiscal decisions were unsustainable.

2. Firmly defend Republican moderates inside the Empire State. Assembly leader Kolb made a loud and clear statement when he stripped Scozzafava of her leadership role. That says something to moderate men and women in New York City who might consider running on the Republican line.

3. Abandon the upstate-vs.-downstate rhetoric. This stuff played well when Republicans could still win statewide elections on the basis of a massive surge upstate. But that’s ancient history. There are too many voters downstate, and upstate is no longer solid GOP turf

I know this kind of agenda would anger many social conservatives, but the current formula just isn’t working in New York.

Mr. Kolb says he doesn’t think the GOP needs a new brand. But if Republicans don’t stage a significant comeback in 2010, his position will be harder to maintain.

Your thoughts?

Tags: election10