A close presidential race down the stretch?

Conservative-leaning blogger Matt Drudge pulled out the red ink and the big headlines this morning to highlight a national poll that puts John McCain within 2% (Gallup) of Barack Obama.

Is the race really that close?

Bluntly, no. And the reason is simple: Americans don’t elect their presidents by a popular vote.

We use a system of Electoral College votes, with most states giving their EC tally to one or the other candidate on a winner-take-all basis.

Which means that McCain is in big trouble.

In order to win enough EC votes, McCain has to capture all the battleground states, from Nevada in the West to Ohio or Pennsylvania in the East.

But even as the national polls have tightened somewhat (most pollsters put Obama ahead by 5-6%), the Democrat has actually solidified or extended his lead in many of the must-win states.

Here are McCain’s problem-states, using poll numbers from RealClearPolitics.com:

Colorado – Obama +5.8%
Florida – Obama +4.8%
Missouri – Obama +2.5%
Nevada – Obama +3%
North Carolina – Obama +1.2%
Ohio – Obama +2.3%
Virginia – Obama +8.1%

I think the Republicans will push hard enough before election day to recapture Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.

But Colorado, Florida, and Virginia appear to be slipping away for McCain. And if he loses any one of those, the game is up.