Republican revival in 2010? I’m still skeptical

2009 was a mixed-bag for Republicans. Big wins in New Jersey and Virginia were balanced against some stinging losses, including special-election defeats in two North Country House races.

But New York’s GOP also scored some big wins downstate in county and municipal elections, suggesting that anti-incumbent and anti-Democratic sentiment are growing.

There’s also growing evidence that the Democratic faithful — always a more fickle lot — are less likely to vote going forward.

If young people and minorities sit on the sidelines, while independents swing back toward Republicans, the moment would seem ripe for a big GOP surge.

So why am I skeptical?

First, let me say that I’m certain that Democrats will lose seats next year, in the House and Senate, and also in gubernatorial races.

That’s typical in the first big election following a presidential race; and with the economy sour, and the nation deeply polarized, the pendulum swing could be significant.

What’s more, a lot of Democrats have been elected in what amounts to hostile territory, riding the big waves of 2006 and 2008 into office. They’re deeply vulnerable.

But can Republicans capture enough momentum, and enough public support, to begin a return to real power? That’s where I’m skeptical.

Currently, the GOP’s ranks are so thin that their only real power is institutional: the threat of filibusters and other delaying tactics, which can slow but not stop the Democratic agenda.

So Republicans need to win big to prove that their agenda, and their ideas, have real traction.

And here’s where the picture looks fuzzy. I see four big hurdles that Republicans will have to clear in the next eleven months if they hope to win back a majority in the House.

1. They’re broke. Politico has a great article up today showing that fundraising efforts are lagging dangerously behind the Democrats. It’s tough to stage a national referendum on Barack Obama’s tenure when you don’t have the cash for a major media push.

“Republicans have been through two cycles of psychological shell-shock. Their members’ first instinct is self-preservation, first and foremost,” said Republican consultant Phil Musser. “The fundraising environment for members in the minority isn’t what it is for members in the majority. It’s damn hard to raise the dough.”

2. Recruiting and retention are lackluster. Incumbency is hard to overcome. So you need to hold onto all your sitting lawmakers, while praying for retirements on the other team. You also have to build a great bench to challenge for those open seats.

So far, Republicans are out-performing Democrats, but only slightly. Some pundits have touted Democratic retirements, but they still number under a half-dozen, when you exclude lawmakers who are running for higher offices.

3. Republicans are still really unpopular. Yes, Nancy Pelosi is unpopular. Barack Obama is controversial. But to capitalize on those facts, you need to offer an attractive alternative. So far, the Republican brand just isn’t that appealing to Americans.

Lingering scandals around the country make it difficult for the GOP to emerge as the big change agent. And George Bush is still a factor in some voters’ minds.

4. Perhaps most importantly, Republicans are divided. We saw what happened in the 23rd CD race when moderates and conservatives clash. Both factions lose.

A lot has been made about Democratic divisions over the health care bill and Afghanistan, but the GOP faces its own deep and intractable rifts. To win big, they need everybody on the same page, voting enthusiastically.

So how can Republicans overcome these hurdles? It will help if President Obama’s popularity continues to slide or if the economy slides into a second dip.

But the GOP also needs more unified leadership, and a more deliberate, positive agenda.

Unless things get very bad indeed, “We’re not the Democrats” won’t be a strong enough message to shift the tide in Washington.

Tags: election10