The end of the Great American Recession
It’s spring break time in Saranac Lake, when many families flee the mud season and use the two-week school vacation to visit sunnier spots.
With my wife Susan and son Nicholas, I set off on a driving trip that looped down through Pennsylvania, plunging into the South, then across the Midwest.
The surprising part of our trip was the burgeoning evidence of an economic recovery. The roads were frantic with tractor-trailers.
The restaurants were packed. The National Parks and rest areas were thrumming.
When we stopped to pick up forgotten essentials — a bathing suit for Nicholas, an attachment for my Ipod — we found the stores busy with customers.
This entirely anecdotal research was echoed today by news that the US economy added 162,000 jobs in March — the largest gain in three years.
“We have had this massive disaster, but we’re at a place now where things are stabilizing,” said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, in an interview with the New York Times.
A lot of the jobs growth came as new Census workers were added. That’s another stimulus created by the Federal government, and it’s sure to be controversial.
There’s no doubt that at some point — and fairly soon — we’ll have to start weaning ourselves from an excess of government spending.
We’re learning this painful lesson now in northern New York, where taxpayer jobs are fading away with no good plan in place to bolster private sector employment.
But for the moment, it appears that we’ve avoided tipping off the cliff.
Americans are out on the road again, working, shopping and going about their lives.
For businesses in the Adirondacks hoping for a busy season this summer, that has to be a welcome sign of spring.
For those who (still) have jobs, things aren't too bad…but for far too many, things are pretty grim and don't show enough signs of getting better quickly
After the census is completed, we'll know for sure how well Obama's policies are affecting the economy. He will no longer be able to hide behind Bush's failures.Can we tax our way out of recession?Stay tuned. We'll know by October.
yeah. and we vote in November!
Patience is a virtue. We can not possibly correct the mismanagement of the last sixteen years in sixteen months. As the children were led out of Egypt and into the promised land, the current administration will lead us out of this economic downturn to a revitlaized America.
please, take off those rose colored glasses. thos few jobs added -the first in 27 months, are like spitting in the rain. glad you got to take a trip,and back here safe all full of refreshed glee, (i notice the in box was left flat for a week) but the people you saw were also on vacation,(the world beats to the tune of school breaks) or serving people on vacation. go back to that same restaurant on tuesday and see if it's still in a bustle, or someplace that is not next to a national park or on a path to one, and see what it's like say in – gila bend arizona.
It will take over five years of March-like results to even out the past two years-YIPEE!
I thought patience was a virgin?
There are signs of recovery closer to home. A colleague recently spent over $10K on kitchen cabinets, and a friend bought a new tractor for $18K, and 4 or 5 houses in Canton are sporting new "sold" signs, so things are moving. Having said that, Fred is exactly right; these are difficult times for those who lack jobs.
Did he spend money on that kitchen reno so he could sell the house and move the heck outta here?
Whatever time you think Obama needs to correct the errs of the past is irrelevant if we have a double-dip recession later this year.That will be charged solely to you-know-who.
George W. Bush
I firmly believe that the troops are not coming home for the simple reason they would flood the unemployment stats. What about the scenario that the ex-soldiers would get hired first, or have a support system to find them jobs, over non-vets.any thoughts on this?
When Bush left office we were loosing jobs at the rate of 700,000 a month!Since that time we have seen a steady improvement in those numbers to this month when the economy added 160,009 jobs. So that is a trend. If you look at the graphs it pretty plain to see. Of course those on the right were hoping for the job losses to continue so Obama would have his Waterloo. Not going to happen folks. By October the economy will be plowing ahead. No thanks to the party of Limbaugh.
The BUsh recession is over. GDP in the last two quarters is running at a higher rate than any time for the previous decade.Jobs as a lagging indicator will take a little longer to return, however this months numbers continue an upward trend that has been in place since the stimulus passed.
This is what you get when you elect a grade C level student. It will take more than 1 administration to untangle that mess. Better question- after Obama- who's next that will not further plunge us into ruin?
"Jobs as a lagging indicator will take a little longer to return, however this months numbers continue an upward trend that has been in place since the stimulus passed.April 2, 2010 12:30 PM"What upward trend- this is the first increase according to the headslines. so that's "one in a row"??
Anon 11:33. "As the children were led out of Egypt and into the promised land, the current administration will lead us out of this economic downturn to a revitalized America."This type of talk is creepy. I prefer not to think of myself as being "led" around by some "divine" government. The people that are successful are those that make their own opportunities. Those are the people that will get this countries economy chugging. So far the most successful part of the economic recovery has come from George Bush’s and Hank Paulson’s TARP program. Financial stocks are on the rise; the DOW has almost hit 11K. Weeeee! Wall Street is humming. I share Brian’s optimism there. We just have to try and ignore that pesky 10% unemployment rate and our huge debt; someday we will have to start to pay some of those bills that are piling up. Maybe we will soon see some real positives signs on Main Street. I hope Brian is right.
April 2, 2010 12:30 PM"What upward trend- this is the first increase according to the headslines. so that's "one in a row"??April 2, 2010 12:35 PMIt's a trend away from highly negative numbers to positive numbers. The trend has been for smaller negative numbers for about 10 months. That's why they call it a trend.If you look at the results graphically you will see a downward trend, then an upward trend. I know trends are hard to follow!
Thank you again, Brian. You've been a refreshing voice in what sometimes seems like a chorus of negativity around here. I'm not generally an optimistic person… it's just not my personality… but your point of view on these matters has lined up rather closely with my experiences and observations.It is rather nice to hear about the positive signs of the situation.
I think Mel Gibsons post was NOT OFFENSIVE.
"This is what you get when you elect a grade C level student. It will take more than 1 administration to untangle that mess. Better question- after Obama- who's next that will not further plunge us into ruin?"I vote Palin for the title of "Bush Lite" She will do a bang up job of plunging the country right back where Bush left it.
One upward move is not a trend, not in any dictionary.
It's not one upward move it's TEN upward moves. That is a trend.
I don't want to burst anyone's bubble but by now tax returns have started to come in and after a long fast of doing without americans are enjoying a small spree. By the end of May watch what happens
I concede the point made by many of the comments here: These are hard times and the signs of improvement are fragile.But the response to my post also hints at two further realities.1. A lot of people are banking on America's failure, because they hope it will illustrate Barack Obama's failure.2. New York's — and the North Country's — experience is out of synch with much of the rest of the US. I think our hard times could persist much longer, as I suggested in my post.–Brian, NCPR
"A lot of people are banking on America's failure". Wow.
Anon 12:44–Google "blood libel" "roots of anti-semitism" "pogrom." The comment was not only offensive, it was one of the oldest offenses in the book.Dale HobsonNCPR web manager
You are right Brian. The Limbaugh,Palin,Beck and Hannity's of this world are hoping against hope that the economic recovery falters.It suits their agenda because at heart they wish this particular President to fail. It's purely political and cynical.
This economic data is very confusing, this from the Washington Post:"The number of new jobless claims filed last week dipped slightly, down 6,000 to 439,000." Yet we added 162,000 jobs last month? Is this good news, I am missing how this works. Also this sounds terrible (also from the post) "What many consider a truer unemployment rate — which includes the underemployed and those who have given up looking for work — came in at 16.9 percent in March, its second straight monthly increase." Can someone help me with how these numbers work. I am not "banking" on bad news just looking for some clarification.
To clarify the main question I have above: If you have 400,000 folks that lost their jobs last week and 162,000 who got new jobs, doesn't that mean you have a net negative number of jobs? I am just trying to understand if there is really any recovery going on. I hope there is.Also, the financial sector lost 21,000 jobs last week, so maybe Wall Street is not as good as I said above.
Chiming in from Canada. Can't believe anyone would take comfort in the failing of one's own country's economy. Things are turning around and that will require the lexicon and the political scripts to get rewritten. Remember how "the surge" made a lot of the left end of the discussion quieten when it pretty much worked? Imagine how a recovery over the next six months would play in November. Will the GOP really bank on American's weakness? Would anyone? I can't believe they would. Your nation is too robust for that. AlanKingston, Ontario
I want good news- but people on vacation are going to be flush enough to be where other people are travelling- other people are buying- and while I'm happy they are, I'm not sure it says too much about the larger population.
I wouldn't want America to fail to knock Obama (it wouldn't be his fault anyway) i would want America to fail so we can all start again on equal footing, hopefully ending the wealthy's rule over the poor.
Anon 12:44–Google "blood libel" "roots of anti-semitism" "pogrom." The comment was not only offensive, it was one of the oldest offenses in the book.Dale HobsonNCPR web managerApril 2, 2010 1:02 PManything posted about the jewish would be pretty old.remembering good friday- are you denying they killed christ for political security?
progrom or blood libel do not apply to mel gibson's deleted comment.when will the term nazi be thrown?oops!! it just was!
We (the USA) will muddle through, which is probably a disappointment to both sides of the political divide. No we are not going to go down the tubes and no we are not going to return to a high level of growth. So yes this recession will slowly end. SLC has had a 7-10% unemployment for the past 10 years, so for us this is business as usual. If nantional unemployment is above 9% in November of 2012 President Obama is in trouble and he should be if that is the case. What is worrisome is that some of his initiatives increase the risk and cost of creating new jobs and hiring new people.
So did all you naysayers expect that the economy should recover in just one year? That is as unrealistic as having heart surgery one day and expecting to run a marathon the next. Buck up. Things are getting better admittedly not instantaneously but they are getting better.
"So did all you naysayers expect that the economy should recover in just one year?"no I expected the people responsible to be held accountable(BUSH/CHENEY), the Illegal Aliens to get booted out of the country, Wall Street to give EVERY PENNY back at once starting with executive salaries, demandChina stop selling us posionous products and let their Yen take a natural course, and let the autistic guy that figured out the Mortgage and Loan debacle run The Fed Reserve (or at least consult)and Bernie Maddoff put in stocks in at least one town in every State so we could throw "stuff at him.That would be a start, and i could think of more-
Brian, I'm late to the party but I have to call foul on your "right side hoping the economy fails". I think it would be more accurate to say some on the right realize the game is only just beginning, that we're in for a lot more trouble before things get better and increased spending and new entitlements aren't going to help it. No one I know wants the economy to fail. Some, myself included, would like a different President and most certainly a different Congress, but not at the cost of a failed country.We have a whole new round of commercial defaults coming this summer. I forget the correct term, but there's no way around it from what I understand.. We also have a bunch of very major corporations talking layoffs and firings due to the costs of the health care plan and at least one of the major student loan companies is firing 25,000 employees according to a blurb on the radio news. Banks continue to fail also and the Fed chair is talking about putting even more money into circulation by doing away with some cash reserve requirements.We have a very, very long way to go before we're out of the woods. I have a hard time believing this blip means the recession is over when everything points to a coming depression, if not a collapse. And incidentally, in the Good Friday spirit I'll note that each night I pray what I fear doesn't happen.
"Some, myself included, would like a different President and most certainly a different Congress, but not at the cost of a failed country."Some myself included wished the last President had not burned a trillion dollars on a dumb war, wished he had not run another off the books, wished that he had not put a huge new entitlement (part D) with no funding whatsoever, wished he had not allowed the banks to run amok and bring down the economy, wished he had not sullied the name of the USA by torturing prisoners. And much more.However we could do nothing to stop his excess and just plain wrong policy.Get used to it we had to endure Bush for 8 years, you have only just begun.
Maybe the federal government does not have the power over economic growth or decline that we try to assign it? In some ways it is comforting to think that a President or a political idea can radically change things, but that does not make it true.
6:34- True, and sad.Mervel, more harm from the Gov't won't help things. Bush proved that.
anon 6:34-bravo!
Bush didn't cause this recession and Obama won't be the solution. They can make things a little worse yes or maybe a little better yes, but they are not the big player. Nobody had to "endure" anything under Bush or Obama. Much of this really is just random. But come on we need things to get better and I hope they do, if that helps this President who I don't think is very competent, and don't really like very much so what? I don't like my barber either and I still go to him.
"Bush didn't cause this recession …."youre in denial, if you think this is "random". I've never heard anything more absurd…oh wait a minute…"I don't like my barber either and I still go to him."If this is the attitude of typical america- we're all screwed.
Oh jeesh pg lighten up.But what difference does my attitude make? Because recessions are caused or solved by the Federal government right?What is absurd is the idea that our futures our destiny our total economy is decided by the federal government the people are nothing more than passive pawns who make the right decision at the voting box or not. If Bush caused this recession than Obama should be able to solve it correct? Neither is really true. Economic forces operate far outside any one president or that presidents ability to fully change them. The economic numbers of the Bush 8 years will be easy to compare to the economic numbers under Obama, we will see how they compare in 2012. If you want to lay blame then you must accept responsibility you can't have it both ways. Did Obama's programs simply prolong the recession? When is this Obama's recession and Obama's wars? As far as I am concerned after one year they are both his. We are still fighting two wars and that is one thing President Obama could change right now, he chooses instead to escalate one of the wars.
Well said Mevel! There hasn't been a President that could actually control the economy since FDR, and he didn't do such a hot job of it. Governements job regarding the economy is to make sure the playing field is more or less level and then get out of the way.
fdr have three terms
Mervel, are you serious?How Naive are you?pg is not that crazy.If you're not irrate, then you're not paying attention.Presidents set policy and global Political climate.Bush was a cowboy–and all hat and no cow at that.Obama was a fool for even taking the job, and has met nothing but opposition, even from those in his own party who are affraid of not being re-elected because of him.You see, they're affraid of their jobs too.merv, you must be alot of fun to have a beer with though.
"Governements job regarding the economy is to make sure the playing field is more or less level and then get out of the way." Is that what Bush's Administration did?pulleeeeeze! here's the quote that comes to mind-…"It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes. Distinctions in society will always exist under every just government. Equality of talents, of education, or of wealth can not be produced by human institutions. In the full enjoyment of the gifts of Heaven and the fruits of superior industry, economy, and virtue, every man is equally entitled to protection by law; but when the laws undertake to add to these natural and just advantages, artificial distinctions to grant titles, gratuities, and exclusive privileges, to make the rich richer and the potent more powerful, the humble members of society-the farmers, mechanics, and laborers-who have neither the time nor the means of securing like favors to themselves, have a right to complain of the injustice of their Government. There are no necessary evils in government. Its evils exist only in its abuses. If it would confine itself to equal protection, and, as Heaven does its rains, shower its favors alike on the high and the low, the rich and the poor, it would be an unqualified blessing. In the act before me there seems to be a wide and unnecessary departure from these just principles."….. U.S. President Andrew Jackson, July 10, 1832