In 2010, it’s Republicans vs. Democrats vs. Apathy
As we head into the summer of the 2010 elections, polling data shows that despite all the fiery rhetoric, a narrow majority — or at least a plurality — of Americans are satisfied with Democratic leadership.
According to Gallup 48% of voters say they’re inclined to vote for Democrats in this year’s congressional mid-terms, compared with just 43% leaning toward Republicans.
CNN’s survey found that 50% of Americans approve of President Obama’s job as president, compared with 48% who disapprove.
Meanwhile, there are more signs of the limitations of the tea party movement’s power in moving the great center of American political attitudes.
In Florida, conservative tea party favorite Marco Rubio is losing badly to Charlie Crist, the centrist Republican turned Independent who is now courting Democratic voters.
Given this tepid atmosphere, why is there so much talk of a Republican revolution in November?
How can the GOP possibly erase the Democrats’ huge majority when there’s no clear consensus that a change is needed?
The answer is apathy. According to another Gallup survey, only 44% of Democratic voters are “more enthusiastic” about voting this year.
That compares with 59% on the Republican side. In political terms, those are landslide “zeal” numbers.
Democrats know this is big trouble and the White House political types have rolled out a big effort to re-energize young voters who tend toward liberalism.
The bottom line is that in this — if nothing else — 2010 may resemble 1994.
Republicans could surge to power not on the popularity of their candidates or the strength of their ideas, but on the apathy of the opposition.
Tags: election10
Brian,
You are forgetting that the way districts are drawn favors the GOP. That is, Democrats candidates in NY, San Fran, Chicago, and other major cities usually win by huge margins. As a result, if the GOP and Dems were to split 50:50 then the GOP would almost certainly have a comfortable majority.
Across the country districts are drawn by the party in power. In the last election I think I read that something like 90% of incumbents (from both parties) won with 65% or more of the vote. You combine all those lopsided districts and the overall “average” is pretty close.
CBS poll has congressional favorable approval at 15% and disapproval at 77%.
Obama doesn’t have coattails to cover that.
Still, apathy will favor the GOP, no question.
Scratchy brings up a good point- gerrymandering. Why we allow it I don’t know, but IMO it’s wrong, no matter who was in charge when it was done.
Every year I get more and more tempted to not vote for anyone.
The way I see it, the Democrats want to take away 40% of the freedoms we have left. The Republicans want to take away the other 40% and every once in awhile they get in a bipartisan mode and agree to take away the remaining 20%.
Isn’t it wonderful in the land of the willingly enslaved and the home of the coward?
True enough Pete. And the “people”, in their ignorance, continue to support one side or the other hoping evil won’t touch them, but will pick on the “other guy”.