With Doheny-Hoffman and Palladino-Lazio, North Country Republicans pick a future

Tomorrow is primary day and in the 23rd House district it’ll be a doozy.

Not only do Republican voters get to choose between Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny for the House seat, they also get to choose between Rick Lazio and Carl Palladino for governor.

In rough terms, Hoffman and Palladino represent the national tea party zeitgeist, with Palladino promising that he would be “taking a baseball bat” with him to Albany and Hoffman’s posters urging voters to “fight back.”

Lazio and Doheny, meanwhile, have argued that they are equally conservative, while also insisting that they are far better informed on the issues, and more electable.

According to Siena’s latest poll, Palladino has pulled to within a statistical dead heat with Lazio statewide, with a commanding lead upstate.

“A heavier than normal Republican turnout upstate will likely hand the nomination to Paladino, who leads upstate 53-32 percent,” argued Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, in a statement released over the weekend.

That kind of momentum for Palladino could also, in theory, boost the chances of Hoffman.

There has been very little polling in the 23rd race.

The general sense among politics-watchers in the North Country is that Doheny has run a much more dynamic, hard-driving campaign, while Hoffman is still riding the wave of last year’s special-election energy.

One can’t help but think that these two slates offer very different views of where the GOP is headed in New York, the one with distinct ties to Wall Street, and somewhat more moderate, and the other far more Upstate and confrontational in tone.

Another lingering question is what exactly Doug Hoffman will do if he loses the primary.  I know he’s promised to campaign as a Conservative through November.

But he and Conservative chairman Mike Long will face serious pressure to reconsider, especially with Democrat Bill Owens already favored by most pundits.

The fun part is that this is one of those elections where no one really knows what will happen.  Voters will sort through all the rhetoric, and make a decision.

This is one of those elections where a handful of votes could  make the difference, so be sure to cast a ballot if you can…

Finally, an early plug for the fact that I’ll be live-blogging the election returns Tuesday night.  So keep refreshing your browser here and keep chiming in on the comment section.

Tags: election10