Election Post-Op, Part Two: America’s new status quo?

We’ve been reporting for a long time on America’s remarkably divided political landscape. People debate whether the U.S. is center-left or center-right and the answer, obviously, is Yes.

In much of rural America, the values remain complexly but staunchly conservative. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported from Ochiltree County, Texas — a place I’ve visited.

Some people here still can’t quite believe that President-elect Barack Obama won the White House; they consider him inexperienced and too liberal. “I had one fellow ask me, ‘Has the whole country gone slap dab crazy?,” says Jim Hudson, publisher of the Perryton Herald.

But in many urban and suburban communities — where 80% of Americans live — the zeitgeist is remarkably progressive. Here’s the take from conservative writer Tod Lindberg, writing for the Washington Post.

Nowadays, it’s a fair bet that most of those calling themselves “liberal” support gay marriage. In 1980, those same liberals were, no doubt, cutting-edge supporters of gay rights, but the notion of same-sex marriage would have occurred only to the most avant-garde.

In 1980, having a teenage daughter who was pregnant out of wedlock would have ruled you out for the No. 2 spot on the Democratic ticket. This year, it turned out to be a humanizing addition to the conservative vice presidential nominee’s résumé.

Normally, this sort of polarization would suggest changeability and the swinging of political pendulums. Not this time.

There’s a sense in political circles that a new electoral map is hardening, with Democrats staking out a clear and perhaps durable advantage.

The trouble for Republicans is that they have effectively maximized their constituency.
Using aggressive redistricting and new marketing strategies, the GOP seized as many congressional districts (and Electoral College votes) as possible during the 1980s and 1990s.

They also spent a quarter-century gleefully converting Boll Weevil Democrats in the South into die-hard Republicans. But now those “easy” pick-ups have all been pocketed.

Democrats, too, have largely staked out their natural territory — but at the end of the day the Dems enjoy a thirty-seat advantage in the House and at least a seven-vote margin in the US Senate.

They control far more state houses and governorships than the Republicans. And they appear to have captured the imagination of the next generation of voters.

“Here’s the stark reality,” writes Lindberg. “It is now harder for the Republican presidential candidate to get to 50.1 percent than for the Democrat.”

What this means is that Republicans can no longer hope to activate an eager, silent majority out there. They can’t “govern from their base.”

Instead, they’ll have to find ideas and arguments that speak compellingly to voters in center-center districts, places like upstate New York.

They’ll have to reshape the rural-white “Joe the Plumber” stuff in a form that crosses ethnic, gender and geographic boundaries.

Otherwise, the new status quo could be, well, static for a long time to come.