NY-24 seen as a “modestly comforting” for Democrats

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com thinks Mike Arcuri’s surprisingly strong showing in the NY-24 House race may suggest a little daylight for embattled Democrats nationwide.

I’ve noted that the generic congressional ballot tends to show worse results for Democrats than other indicators like polls of individual House races.

In other words, some individual Democratic candidates around the country appear to be outperforming their party, while some Republican candidates are underperforming.

Richard Hanna, the Republican in the 24th, currently lags by 8%.  That’s not a lot, but it’s more than I expected.

This is tea leaf stuff, but if that’s your cup of tea read the full analysis here.

Tags: election10