by
Brian Mann on September 22nd, 2010
Jude Seymour at the Watertown Daily Times has done the math on Doug Hoffman’s lingering hope that he’ll top Matt Doheny in the Republican primary and it doesn’t look good.
According to Seymour, Doheny has almost “mathematically eliminated” Hoffman’s chances of victory.
Douglas L. Hoffman, his opponent, now will need 77 percent of the remaining absentees to win. The Saranac Lake accountant will have to reverse trends — and quickly.
Absentee votes so far are being split between the candidates similarly to the Primary Day poll results.
Mr. Doheny won 51 percent of the vote on election night; he has about 54 percent of the absentee vote counted so far.
A number of news organizations have already declared Doheny the unofficial winner. Others have used the term “apparent” winner.
Barring some new development, we should have an official final count by Friday at the latest.
Tags: election10
I’m curious at to why counting these absentee ballets is taking so long. Anyone with inside knowledge have the answer?
I asked that in response to an earlier post on this topic and no one answered. Based on the news stories I’ve been reading I gather that some precincts delay opening the absentee ballots. Why delay? Why do different precincts have different delay periods? I have not figured that out. To me it seems simple. Open the envelops, count the votes, report the totals. No big deal. But what do I know.
My understanding is that the deadline for absentee ballots to arrive by mail is Thursday. Some counties delay counting until all the votes are in.
–Brian, NCPR
Thanks, Brian…..That makes sense.
Darn it, Brian. You ruined a half-dozen good conspiracy theories.
The deadline is 9 days after the election…what are they waiting for, late mail from Uzbekizstan?? Are you really allowed to wait until after the election to decide who you want to vote for and then mail in your absentee ballot?
Fred – There may actually be some North Country soldiers in Uzbekistan. There certainly are men and women at FOBs on the Pakistan frontier.
–Brian, NCPR
Sorry…correction…meant Afghan frontier. Though, really, they may be in Pakistan for all we know…
–Brian, NCPR
Fred – No, you can not wait until after the election and then submit an absentee ballot. The ballot must be postmarked by a certain date, a date that falls before the election. The reason for the wait, as Brian M points out, is to allow time for the mailed ballots to arrive at the polling place – they could be coming from quite a distance.