Four hurdles for the Republicans in November
Republicans hope to win a majority in at least one house of Congress this November, but they also hope to reclaim the high ground in the larger American narrative.
Conservatives have long claimed that they represent a “silent majority” within the larger society.
That claim took a big hit in 2006 and 2008, when voters gave control of the entire Federal government to Democrats.
In their effort to wrestle the “public mandate” away from Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid, here are ten things that could trip up the surging GOP.
1. Failing to win a majority the House of Representatives. This is the big one, obviously Most pundits still think the GOP has a lock on winning enough seats to boot Nancy Pelosi out of the Speaker’s chair. Failing to meet those expectations would be… messy.
2. Losing big governor’s races. Despite the Republican Party’s tea-party fueled momentum, Democrats are competitive in the Big Five governor’s races, in California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas. (Yes, Texas…) If they manage to steal those governorships away from the GOP, Democrats would have executive control in every big state in the U.S. That would also give Dems huge advantages going into the 2012 presidential race.
3. Landing in scandal land. The tea party movement has elevated a lot of unknown politicians, who have only been thinly vetted by anyone, journalists or party bosses. Incumbents are unpopular, and boring, but they tend to be known quantities. Republican leaders are worried about skeletons. Which is why so many newly minted candidates are lying low until after election day, avoiding interviews and unscripted moments.
4. Winning Southern. If the GOP emerges from November’s vote with a majority caucus that is even more lop-sidedly Southern, it will be tough for the party to argue that it rflects the national zeitgeist. Polls show Republicans are already unpopular in the far West, the Midwest, the Great Lakes and the Northeast. To claim a mandate, they need more Scott Brown-type wins.
If Republicans clear most or all of these hurdles, they’ll start 2011 with a very strong hand to play against President Barack Obama and a (likely) Democratic Senate.
Tags: election10
Brian please explain your surprise over Texas.
Texas used to be Democrat-friendly in governor’s races, but Republicans have dominated now for 15 years.
John McCain won Texas by nearly a million votes in 2008
So yeah, the idea that a Democrat is making real race of it there in a year when Democrats were supposed to be cooked gooses shocked me.
–Brian, NCPR
Like I have said before, I don’t think it is wise for the Republicans to take the majority and share the “blame” in 2012. So don’t worry about the hurdles, thanks but no thanks.
Remember that kooky “operation chaos” that Rush Limbaugh was touting where he was trying to get republicans to vote for Clinton to prolong Obama v. Clinton?
It might be smart for Republicans to just vote in Democrats in the midterms and let them continue to flounder for a few more years. There is no real indication that things are improving, or will improve over the next 28 months.
If Republicans were able to get some tax reduction policies in line, they would clash with all the increased government spending that the president has brought on line and in the end things would be worse. You have to do many things at once to solve the problems we have, a majority for a few years will not accomplish that.
Paul,
Please spread that “chaos” idea around among your conservative acquaintances.
Thank you
oa, will do. I don’t have too many conservative acquaintances but I will see what I can do.
oa, all my comments are really mute. Anything that I were to vote for would be erased by my wife’s opposite vote! This would give me a chance to vote with her for a change!