Owens-Doheny race tighter and tighter
Siena poll out this morning shows the race in the 23rd CD tighter than ever, with Democrat Bill owens still in the lead at 40 percent, Republican Matt Doheny at 37. That’s within the margin of error, and makes Conservative Doug Hoffman, polling 15 percent even though he suspended his campaign, a true wild card.
No matter which way that 15 percent splits, pollster Steven Greenberg says it appears likely that neither Owens nor Doheny will win with 50 percent of the vote.
The survey polled likely voters. The 40-37 split came before voters were reminded that Hoffman had dropped out…the race was a draw when people were asked to choose between just Owens and Doheny. Greenberg says it’s “surprising” so many voters still think Hoffman’s in the race…and he says that works to Owens’ advantage, since it’s likely more of those Hoffman supporters would turn to Doheny.
Other tidbits: Men like Doheny; women like Owens. Younger, Protestant voters like Doheny; older (55+) and Catholic prefer Owens.
More later…
Tags: election10
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If potential voters haven’t realized that Hoffman has dropped out by now, they are unlikely to do so by next Tuesday…so Owens may slip in (OK with me, I’m a Democrat) but the 52-40 margin in the poll preferring the more conservative, toss the incumbents out view doesnt auger well for Russell or Aubertine in other NC races.
I’m sorry, Brian, but I am not impressed with all the time and space you are devoting to the “horse race.” The day after this election is over, these polls will mean nothing. Meanwhile, we will have elected representatives whose ideas, convictions (I don’t mean BWI), integrety and leadership qualities (or lack thereof) will have a far greater significance for the rest of us and the quality of life in the North Country. Please, give it a rest. Spend more time digging into who these people are, enlighten us, tell us something we don’t already know that could make a difference in our understanding, and conceivable help us become better informed voters.
Sure hope Owens hangs on. I think he’s done a good job in our district.
mark:
i’ll defend brian on this. for those who should follow these races – and i include everyman in this – it’s important and interesting to track how and why candidates rise and fall during a campaign season.
that kind of analysis helps all voters who are not privvy to what siena can ascertain, and how the news media, if done properly, can give us the package that helps us make a decision.
plus, it’s lots of fun in close races to know every few weeks how the candidates are trending.
and hopefully, in the process this kind of thing brings more voters to the polls.
I’m sorry, Cement, but the polls tell me little if anything about the “how and why” candidates rise and fall, and more importantly, they tell me nothing about how I should vote. I’m not asking Brian to tell me how I should vote, but to give me the kind of information that can help me be a more informed voter. I think all the time spent chasing polls and interviewing pollsters is, frankly, lazy journalism. For a place that espouses the NPR journalism culture, I am looking for more from NCPR.
Let me try another tack.
At the time of the BP oil spill in the Gulf, Brian went down to report on the story for NPR. During that period, several polls were gauging the public’s opinion regarding the spill and the President’s handling of it.
I will venture to guess that Brian did not spend a minute of his time chasing polls or analyzing their meaning or accuracy. He was there to gather information, find the story, and report back in ways that would inform and, hopefully, enlighten us.
Well, Brian does not have to travel to Louisiana to find the story of this election, to ferret out kernels of truth from the avalanche of misinformation that is burying us, to find the story (i.e., the story in “Story, Music, Life”) and convey its meaning to those of us living in the North Country. I will venture again to say, that the story of this election, the story of the candidates and our story as a community, has little, if anything, to do with polls and the “horse races” they are following.
Perhaps the real story of this election season is how much money some people will spend to spread lies and cast dirt at an opponent in an effort to get someone elected.
When you consider what these jobs pay, you got to wonder what the winners will owe to the people who paid out big bucks to get them elected.
We might also wonder how many people who are out of work or in low paying jobs who might have benefited from all the money spent to land a job for just one person.
As Bob Dylan once sang, “Money don’t talk. It swears.”
If you would like to refresh your memory and read all of the words to Bob’s classic song It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding) – they don’t make ’em like that no more, babe – go to: http://www.bobdylan.com/#/songs/its-alright-ma-im-only-bleeding