Rothenberg calls 20th CD race a "toss-up"

Tough news for Republican Jim Tedisco. Earlier in the week, a poll put newcomer Democrat Scott Murphy within 7 points in a district that used to be a staunch GOP stronghold.

Now veteran (and non-partisan) political analyst Stuart Rothenberg is calling the race “a toss-up.”

The Republican voter registration advantage appears to be a lagging indicator of the direction of a district that voted overwhelming for Gillibrand and gave Barack Obama a more narrow victory last fall.

There appears to be a sizable population of Republicans that aren’t yet willing to vote for state Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco (R). Democrats have Tedisco on the defensive for not taking a stance on the stimulus bill in a district where President Obama and Gillibrand are very popular.

The conservative National Review is also doing some handwringing over this race.

My sense is that Murphy isn’t quite this close yet, but he seems to have some real momentum. Tomorrow, we’ll interview Tedisco on NCPR to get his take on the race.