Obama’s red state sag

Back in the primary season, one of the big arguments in favor of Barack Obama was that he was a uniter, somebody who could step past the divisiveness of the Clinton-Bush years.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, was seen as more divisive, a “polarizing” figure.

Evidence for Obama’s “red state” appeal seemed to build as he racked up victories in states like Kansas and Montana.

There was a lot of brave talk of “Obama” Republicans, or Obamacans.

The truth is, America just doesn’t work like that anymore. There’s a lot of love out there, but when it comes to politics we ARE polarized.

Obama was able to win Democratic primaries in red states in large part because they were caucuses, where his highly motivated activists stole a march on Clinton’s more traditional top-down campaign, or because they were states with large African American populations.

(I think Clinton was so over-confident that she and her campaign managers never bothered to build organizations in states like Nebraska and South Dakota. They assumed she would lock up the primary in big states like California and New York.)

Obama’s primary success never translated into popularity among Republicans. Even before Sarah Palin came on board, 90% of registered Republicans were sticking with John McCain.

That was greater loyalty than Obama was inspiring among Democrats.

In recent polling, there’s very little sign that Obama has been able to “expand the battleground” in a meaningful way.

Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia are seriously in play this year, but that reflects broader demographic trends — not a unique appeal for Obama.

States like Georgia and North Carolina, meanwhile, seem almost as out of reach for Democrats this year as they were in 2000 and 2004.

Where does that leave Obama? He’s marching the same uncomfortable road that Al Gore and John Kerry traveled.

He’ll have to excite and motivate his base of support, rallying African Americans, Hispanics, young people, and women in unprecedented numbers.

And he’ll have to accomplish that cheerleading on some hostile terrain:

Ohio will play a big role in choosing our next president and so will Florida. At the moment, both states are trending toward John McCain.