Murphy, Gillibrand…Paterson?

When Governor David Paterson appointed Kirsten Gillibrand to fill out Hillary Clinton’s Senate term, it seemed to a lot of observers like the worst kind of hat trick.

It was an odds-on bet that Democrats would lose Gillibrand’s House seat. Gillibrand seemed a shaky bet to hold the Senate seat against a wave of irate primary challengers.

And then the whole folderol with Caroline Kennedy contributed to Paterson’s own vulnerability.

But now Scott Murphy has held the 20th House district in an upset win over Jim Tedisco.

And Kirsten Gillibrand is systematically building what looks to be an insuperable campaign advantage.

Two potential challengers dropped out this week; she’s garnered powerful endorsements from same-sex marriage and pro-choice groups; and she’s raising money like a champ.

Even Barack Obama has made some political reach-outs on her behalf.

So the question now is: Will the architect of all this surprising good fortune survive?

It’s still hard to see how. But if Paterson somehow manages to win re-election in 2010, he’ll have turned a train-wreck into a trifecta.