What if it’s an Obama-McCain tie?

One of the weirdest aspects of our very weird Electoral College system is that it’s possible for the candidates to…tie.

And while that’s an okay outcome for soccer fans, it would likely be a disaster in American politics.

Winning the presidency requires 270 electoral college votes.

But one of my favorite, wonky-politics websites — FiveThirtyEight.com
— is now reporting that there’s a 3.4% chance that John McCain and Barack Obama will end the long campaign in a deadlock.

That means both candidates hitting the finish line with exactly 269 electoral college votes.

The likeliest scenario (granted, not VERY likely) would go like this: “Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire.”

Bingo – all tied up.

Now, according to the U.S. Constitution, an electoral college tie is broken by Congress. Because we’re almost certain to have a Democratic majority, the victory would almost certainly go to Barack Obama.

But there’s one more wrinkle.

In most of the photo-finish scenarios “modeled” by the wonks at FiveThirtyEight.com, John McCain has won the popular vote.

So.

It’s just possible that our next president will have been chosen by a Democratic Congress, despite a tie-score in the Electoral College, and a popular vote that went to the Republican.

Is that any worse than the 2000 election, which was essentially decided by a Republican-appointed U.S. Supreme Court?

Probably not, but that was no picnic either. Let’s hope that come November, American voters will hop off the fence they’ve been straddling and make a firm decision, one way or the other.