A scorecard for the 23rd House race

Okay, here’s my take on the 23rd House race special election, triggered by Rep. John McHugh’s acceptance of the Army Secretary post.

1. Republicans have found a strong candidate in Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava. She’s well-liked personally in her district and has an appealing, down-to-earth style.

But Scozzafava has some big chinks in her armor.

There’s a strong public perception that she’s entangled in the controversy and legal wrangling surrounding her brother’s troubled chain of Hackett’s department stores.

Also, her support for same-sex marriage rights infuriated many conservative Republicans in this strongly Roman Catholic district.

2. Which leads us to Doug Hoffman, the accountant from Lake Placid who is now running on the Conservative Party ticket.

Hoffman is a newcomer but he’s a serious thoughtful candidate who can self-fund a lot of his campaign.

(He’s hired Sandy Caligiore, the former ORDA press guy, to handle media relations — a smart first step.)

His biggest liability could be the Conservative Party itself. Chairman Mike Long has taken his rhetorical attacks against Scozzafava to a fever pitch, comparing her to Bernie Madoff.

That kind of nastiness could easily backfire among North Country voters.

But unless Hoffman stumbles, I see no reason why he won’t siphon off a big chunk of the district’s conservatives.

3. Which brings us finally to the Democrats.

The county chairs have been meeting for weeks struggling to find a holy grail candidate comparable to Scott Murphy, the Glens Falls businessman who won the 20th House district special election in an upset.

Darrel Aubertine bowed out, making their search that much more difficult.

They’re expected to announce a pick later today and the pressure is on big time to make the right choice.

Frankly, given the shifting demographics and voting patterns in the 23rd — and the bitter fight shaping up between Scozzafava and Hoffman — this could be the Democrats’ race to lose.

If they choose a token candidate, someone who can’t win financial support from Democrats in Washington, chalk this one up as a missed opportunity.

But if Dems do find a serious horse to run, this shapes up as an epic contest with big national implications.

Your thoughts?