Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight — now a part of the New York Times on-line presence — has finally put up his national forecast for the House races this midterm.
He thinks Republicans have a two-in-three chance of taking control of the House in November, which means (obviously) that if trendlines hold steady Democrats have only a one-in-three chance of maintaining their majority.
According to Silver, Republicans are 97% sure to pick up at least one New York seat, in the Western NY district vacated by scandal-ridden Eric Massa last March.
Mike Arcuri, the Democrat in NY-24 — which includes Old Forge — has a 54% chance of being unseated by Republican businessman Richard Hanna.
From there, however, the GOP’s chances in this region grow more slim, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast models, which include factors ranging from polls to fundraising.
Scott Murphy, the Democrat from Glens Falls, currently has a 72% chance of prevailing over challenger Chris Gibson.
Bill Owens, the Democrat from Plattsburgh, has a 69% chance of winning a full term.
One final note: Silver confirms that Democrats are hard-pressed this fall, and very likely to tumble, but he also acknowledges that the race-by-race trench battle of this campaign will decide the outcome.
“[E]ven if the Republicans are likely to enjoy substantial gains over all, the outcome is hardly so certain in any individual Congressional district.
Although the model regards almost three dozen Democratic incumbents as being underdogs to retain their seats, for instance, it is by a slim margin in almost all cases.”