Poll: we could lose the next generation

A day after Census news that New York is aging — especially rural New York, led by Hamilton County –  another foot drops. Marist College pollsters report that of the young people we DO have, 36 percent plan to move away within five years:

Right now, many young people do not see their future in New York State,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Unchecked, this threatens to drain the state of the next generation.”

Twenty-six percent of  “adults” plan to leave too. It’s the economy, say the Marist numbers:

Of residents who expect to leave New York, more than six in ten — 62% — cite economic reasons like jobs, the cost of living, or taxes.  38%, however, report non-economic reasons such as the proximity to family, overcrowding, quality of life, schools, or retirement as the catalyst.

You can see the tabs and press release and lots more discouraging news at the Marist Poll website, plus a video of Miringhoff, who’s turning 60 and wondering f that’s old, or young. It’s tellingly called “Age is in the Eye of the Beholder.”

Monday morning, Brian Mann and I will consider this week’s numbers, especially as they relate to our region.

28 Responses to “Poll: we could lose the next generation”

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  1. Fred Goss says:

    I wonder what the comparable stats are for states like Mass, PA, OH etc where the situations are roughly comparable.

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  2. Mervel says:

    It is the purest form of democracy. With a Federalist system you can choose between different states, different tax structures, different opportunities.

    Like/Dislike this comment: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  3. scratchy says:

    “I wonder what the comparable stats are for states like Mass, PA, OH etc where the situations are roughly comparable.”

    Situations are not really “roughly comparable.” Massachusetts’s property taxes are about half what they are in NY and Mass has lower state income tax. Don’t know about PA or Ohio.

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  4. Pete Klein says:

    Let me put it this way. Polls are junk. Ask a question. Get an answer. Presume you are getting honest answers and are not being jerked around for whatever reason. Then extrapolate from a few hundred or a few thousand to 19 million and then say, “Eureka!”
    I hate polls, especially around election time. They make many say, “Why bother to vote when the polls have already decided.”

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  5. knuckleheadedliberal says:

    I would suggest that New York is on the verge of renewed growth in the near future. Water is becoming increasingly scarce in the rapidly growing areas of the West. We have plenty of water–too much at the moment.

    Also, yesterday I heard an NPR story about important new medical research in Albany. There is a growing high tech research and manufacturing base in the Albany/Schenectady/Troy/Saratoga region and census data reflects growth in the area even before the opening of the AMD chip plant.

    We have many quality educational institutions, great recreation opportunities, good arts and sports venues and great cities within easy reach.

    Finally, food. Local, high quality fruits, vegetables, dairy, meat, fish and specialty products are enjoying a rebirth in NY.

    I think kids are going to start looking at New York as a good choice to live.

    Like/Dislike this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  6. Mervel says:

    Yes I think we have some great things here.

    I think the issue is looking at why people are leaving? Also with a huge huge state like New York, what is going on in one area may having nothing to do with what is happening in another. Why people leave the North Country may be totally different than why people are leaving Rochester or Buffalo or New York City.

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  7. Peter Hahn says:

    I dont think people are leaving New York City – they are leaving upstate (Central north and west etc)

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  8. scratchy says:

    “I dont think people are leaving New York City – they are leaving upstate (Central north and west etc)”

    Actually the Census showed NYC only grew about 2%, a little faster than upstate but a lot slower than the rest of the nation.

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  9. Walker says:

    I’ve been reading a lot of North Country newspapers from the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s on the Northern New York Library Network site (news.NNYLN.net) and I’ll tell you, it’s a rare obit that doesn’t list a bunch of kids who live somewhere other than where they grew up. I don’t live where I grew up. How many of you folk live where you grew up? It’s a normal thing, and isn’t necessarily a sign of the end times for an area. The only thing that matters is the overall population trend, and even that is bound to have ebbs and flows.

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  10. Mervel says:

    I think the point though is that the overall population trend is negative for NYS. But it is ebb and flow no doubt about that. But lower population or an aging population is always seen as this “bad” thing, why?

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  11. Bret4207 says:

    “Of residents who expect to leave New York, more than six in ten — 62% — cite economic reasons like jobs, the cost of living, or taxes.”

    62% of respondents who can’t find adequate employment to maintain a decent lifestyle due to cost of living, part of which is taxes. Yet we have posters in other threads telling us we don’t have tax issues, that we just need to spend more, pay more taxes.

    Weird, huh?

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  12. Peter Hahn says:

    Bret – kids leave for jobs -they dont even know or think about taxes

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  13. PNElba says:

    I live and work where I was born and grew up. But, I did leave for about 25 years for military, education, and training opportunties. I came back. This is a great place to raise kids.

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  14. knuckleheadedliberal says:

    Taxes are paid in every state of the union. I don’t know how people decide that one states taxes are so much more burdensome than others. Who really knows what taxes are like in another state until you’ve lived there for a while. People from Virginia tell me they pay a tax on their car every year. If you move there you have 60 days to register your car to be taxed. Seems pretty burdensome to me.

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  15. Mervel says:

    I think people move in general for three reasons, jobs, retirement and cost of living.

    Taxes play into cost of living but they are not the whole story. I do think they play a a relatively large role for decisions about retirement for some people who are mobile.

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  16. Pete Klein says:

    I don’t live where I was born and raised. Hardly anyone does. Americans have always moved around. It’s in our blood. Except for the Native Americans, everyone here comes from people who came from someplace else. Even the Native Americans came here from Asia near the end of the last Ice Age.
    Jobs are the primary reason.

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  17. oa says:

    Leaving now reason: Weather and jobs.
    Coming back soon reason: Weather (no tornadoes) and jobs.

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  18. Bret4207 says:

    This idea that people don’t pay attention to taxes and other cost of living issues is bunk. Why do you think Walmart got so big? Lower prices. Why did/do so many people buy prescriptions on line, go to the Rez to buy fuel and smokes, shop online to avoid sales tax? We used to do most of our shopping for school clothes in Saratoga Co. instead of staying in Warren Co because Saratoga had a 6% sales tax instead of 7%. When I was working down state people from NY commonly gassed up in NJ where the gas was 10-20 cents a gallon cheaper because of taxes.

    Kids may not consider the whole cost of living at 18, true enough. But it doesn’t take then long to figure out where their money goes further. Denying the obvious doesn’t change it. Anyone who’s been in the service knows you did most of your shopping on base and it was crazy to go to town and pay through the nose for goods and services that were available on base for 1/4 the price. Are 18 year olds in the service any more mature than 18 year olds at SUNY Potsdam?

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  19. Peter Hahn says:

    Bret – yes people like to save money. But taxes are only a small part of what we spend and I cant imagine anyone making a decision of where to move based purely on taxes – especially income taxes. It would only be if that would make a big difference – maybe retirees or conceivably the very wealthy. For most of us, if we get a job offer in a state with higher taxes than the state we live in, and its a better job and pays more, who cares if the taxes are higher.

    Like/Dislike this comment: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

  20. Mervel says:

    I think that is true Peter.

    We moved here from a much lower tax state because of a career opportunity for my wife. The taxes were a consideration, we looked at them as part of her salary, but even with the lower salary because of the taxes the overall impact was positive. We also like the outdoors and the adirondacks. So taxes are not the whole ball of wax.

    I have to also say though that there is no way we would retire here. We have three years left and our home will be paid for, yet the taxes alone we will have to pay on that home until we die are more than the monthly cost of rent in many low tax states. It is not a good place economically for those on a fixed income.

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  21. JDM says:

    Oh! Was this the poll that spurred this thread?

    High taxes was the leading reason for people under 30 wanted to leave NYC, and hence, New York State.

    ALBANY – Escape from New York is not just a movie – it’s also a state of mind.

    A new Marist College poll shows that 36% of New Yorkers under the age of 30 are planning to leave New York within the next five years – and more than a quarter of all adults are planning to bolt the Empire State.

    The New York City suburbs, with their high property values and taxes, are leading the exodus, the poll found.

    Of those preparing to leave, 62% cite economic reasons like cost of living, taxes – and a lack of jobs.

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/05/13/2011-05-13_new_yorkers_under_30_plan_to_flee_city_says_new_poll_cite_high_taxes_few_jobs_as.html#ixzz1MSvtZOKV

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  22. Bret4207 says:

    Peter, what you imagine and what I hear people talking about are apparently 2 different things. In my circle of acquaintances taxes and inflation/devalued dollars are the chief subject along with job security. From 18 to 82 that’s what folks talk about and are trying to deal with.

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  23. Peter Hahn says:

    Bret – talk is one thing but as Mervel points out, the decision to move somewhere is based on the whole package and taxes are only a small part of that. There surely are businesses whose decisions on where to move come down to taxes – simply because other things are equal. But even there, transportation costs and labor/raw material availability may be more important.

    Like/Dislike this comment: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  24. oa says:

    Taxes are important, certainly. But why is high-tax NYC the only growth area in the state? By the way, there’s a lot of evidence that NYC was severely undercounted in the census: http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2011-04-06-censusundercount06_ST_N.htm
    Another point: Part of the reason there are no jobs is the quest for low prices. Wal-mart basically quit selling anything not made in China, which greatly accelerated the demise of US manufacturing. And its monopolistic practices wiped out all sorts of mom n pop retailers in rural America, turning downtowns into ghost towns. But that was our choice. We were willing to trade no jobs for low-cost consumer items. That’s what we value.

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  25. dave says:

    Taxes certainly did not factor into the equation for me when I was looking at places to live after college. Nor did they factor into the decisions of anyone in my circle of friends.

    “Oh jeez, I really love Boston, and all my friends moved there, but hmmmm, the tax rate… I don’t know about that tax rate!”

    Hahah, that is just not something that entered any of our minds.

    Lifestyle considerations, social and cultural opportunities, friends… things like that had much more influence over where we settled down.

    I don’t know who these little accountants are that are suddenly factoring tax rates into their early life decisions, but it seems strange to me.

    Then of course, when talking about taxes, let us remember this inconvenient fact: We are enjoying the lowest tax burden in this country since 1950. That includes Federal, State and Local taxes.

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  26. “I dont think people are leaving New York City – they are leaving upstate (Central north and west etc).”

    You mean central and west.

    According to US Census 2010 figures, every single county in the Adirondacks and NNY INCREASED in population as compared to 2000, except Hamilton.

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  27. hermit thrush says:

    High taxes was the leading reason for people under 30 wanted to leave NYC, and hence, New York State.

    funny, but i clicked on jdm’s link and i found no evidence for this claim. then i went to the page that brian linked to for the poll and downloaded the complete poll release, and again i found no evidence for the claim. are you getting this from somewhere else, jdm, or are you just making things up?

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  28. Pete Klein says:

    More important than putting a 2% tax cap on property taxes would be to put a 2% cap on the prices of food, electricity, gas, oil, etc.
    By the way, the 2% cap idea is just another unfunded mandate.

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