How will Palin play in NY’s 20th CD?

Right out of the gate, Republican Sandy Treadwell invited Sarah Palin to campaign for him in the 20th congressional district, even though the Alaska governor is to the right of Treadwell on some key social issues.

Abortion’s the biggy – Treadwell is pro-choice, while Palin opposes abortion even in cases of incest and rape.

Even if she doesn’t come here (and it’s unlikely she will) Palin could have two very different impacts on this race:

1. Palin could alienate moderate voters, especially Independents and suburban women, who make up a growing chunk of the 2oth’s electorate.

Not a good thing for Treadwell, who has described himself as essentially post-partisan.

2. Palin could inspire Republicans — especially pro-life voters — and give them a reason to “come home” to their party.

To win a second term, Gillibrand (also pro-choice) HAS to keep some of those Republicans, especially blue collar Roman Catholic voters, in her corner.