McCain’s gauntlet

This race isn’t nearly as close as it looks.

According to Pollster.com — one of the most respected poll compilers — Democrat Barack Obama holds a fairly narrow 6% national lead.

That fact alone gives Republican John McCain a tough assignment in the closing weeks. But his road to the White House is made tougher by five factors.

1. The economy. Republicans have said openly (for reasons that I don’t quite understand) that they can’t compete on economic issues. They pushed hard to change the subject. The world economy didn’t cooperate. McCain has to figure out how to fight his way back to parity on this issue.

2. President Bush. There’s been a lot of talk about George Bush’s legacy. John McCain is living it. Bush’s approval numbers are in the toilet and that has rubbed off on McCain. The joke going around is that Bush beat McCain in 2000 and he may just beat him again in 2008.

3. Money. Obama has more. Which means that McCain can’t use TV ads to redefine the debate in the final weeks. Even if conservatives unleash a Swiftboat-style attack on Obama, he should be able to counter-message effectively.

4. The battleground. National polls matter, but state-by-state polls matter more. McCain has already forfeited Michigan. Rasmussen reports this morning that Obama is up by double digits in Wisconsin. Pennsylvania now looks solid for Obama. McCain’s opportunities are dwindling.

5. The clock. John McCain is nearly out of time. As Politico reported this week, he’s been taking weekends off, even in these closing weeks. If he sticks to that schedule, he’ll have 19 campaigning days (including today) before November 4th.

In a blog later today, I’ll opine about the narrow road that McCain might follow to a win.