What if the polls are just plain wrong?

Because, let’s face it, some of them have to be wrong.

Jay Cost, who writes for RealClearPolitics.com, puts it this way:

I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can’t be chalked up to statistical “noise.” That gives me great pause.

Today’s polls range from a high of 53% for Barack Obama down to a relatively anemic 48%.

John McCain’s numbers sprawl even more wildly: from 38% up to 47%. Yikes.

So it’s actually possible that the Democrat and the Republican are effectively tied.

Why is this happening? The bottom line is that pollsters aren’t really sure how to measure the electorate’s opinions.

Who will show up? What’s the proper mix of people to include in any poll? How do you factor in race?

If Americans were less complicated, the pollsters would have an easier time of things. But where would the fun be in that?