Siena Poll: Aubertine up by 11% – GOP control of state Senate in question

First the North Country headline:

State Senator Darrel Aubertine (D) still leads his Republican challenger, David Renzi, by 11%.

But Aubertine’s down below 50% (okay, just at 49%) and the poll finds a pool of 13% still undecided.

According to Siena’s numbers, the Republican has closed the gap by 9%.

Still, it’s hard to see him making up the remaining difference in 24 hours.

Also, Aubertine still holds a 54% to 40% favorability advantage, which makes any last minute surges by Renzi particularly unlikely.

Now the statewide picture:

Democrats need just one net seat pick-up to tie the Republicans in the state Senate — and two seats to gain control.

Siena now says that one Republican Senator, Caesar Trunzo, is trailing his Democratic opponent by a stunning 22%.

Another Republican Senator, Serf Maltese, is trailing his Democratic opponent by a much closer 2%.

An open Republican seat — vacated by Mary Lou Rath — is leaning toward the GOP, with Republican Michael Razenhofer holding a 5% advantage.

The Democrats also seem to have stabilized their own Sen. Bill Stachowski, who is now leading his Republican opponent by 4%.

The bottom line? In a year when Barack Obama and John McCain are both expected to drive heavy voter turn-out, state Senate races could be volatile.

Here’s the bottom line, as reported by 810 WGY radio.

SIENA’S STEVE GREENBERG SAYS ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN. HE SAYS HE WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED TO SEE EITHER PARTY TAKE POWER [IN THE STATE SENATE]…AND ALSO WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF BOTH PARTIES SPLIT POWER.