Utica pollster Zogby: 54% Obama – 42.7% McCain

In his final, election-day poll, Utica-based pollster John Zogby delivers tough news to the McCain campaign.

Politico reported this week that the McCain camp waits eagerly for the latest poll numbers, looking for signs of a tightening race.

Zogby says that hasn’t happened.

“Obviously anything can happen on Election Day, but Americans want change and it seems very clear that the historic candidacy of Sen. Obama defines that change.”

Zogby raises the possibility of a “stunning victory” for Obama. If that happens, the pollster says it will be driven by four key groups:

Independents – Obama leads by 24%.
Women – the Democrat up by 20%
Moderates – a 32% advantage for the Dem
Newly registered voters – 30% Obama tilt

(Zogby doesn’t mention African American or Hispanic voters, but those demographics also have a heavy Obama lean.)

McCain holds some advantages, leading the 55-69 age group by half a percentage point and holding a 7% advantage among white voters.

Read Zogby’s full election day treatment here:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1633