What does Scozzafava’s pull-out mean for Tuesday?

The first, obvious take-away from today’s shocker of a decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava is that Doug Hoffman benefits enormously.

Scozzafava was harnessing a sizable 29% of the Republican vote, and only 11% of the Democratic vote.

You can do the math. If Hoffman and Owens harvest equal percentages from their respective columns, the Conservative gains a boost that’s nearly three times as large.

There are some caveats, though. Some of the folks in both columns may be ideological drifters.

An example might be Republican women who have drifted into the moderate or even liberal territory now inhabited by Scozzafava.

Or, they might be Democratic men, who have drifted away from the Obama platform Bill Owens has embraced.

In short, anyone who hasn’t yet “come home” to Hoffman or Owens might have pretty strong reasons not to do so.

But the basic math looks great for Hoffman.

One other development. The Democratic Get Out The Vote Effort powered by union-labor had been divided between Scozzafava (whose husband is a labor organizer) and Owens.

Union groups have been shifting over to the Democratic column through the day.

Similarly, Hoffman will now likely enjoy the full firepower of the GOP’s GOTV machine. So, is that a wash? Hard to read.

Your thoughts? Post away below.