What does yesterday’s vote say about NY-20 and NY-23?
All winter, pundits and pollsters have been predicting that Democrats in rural Northeastern seats — like Bill Owens from Plattsburgh and Scott Murphy from Glens Falls — are swimming in perilous waters.
The tea party energy is palpable and in the 23rd congressional district Doug Hoffman is working deliberately to tap that passion.
Hoffman issued a press release last night congratulating fellow tea partier Rand Paul, who won a Republican primary in Kentucky’s Senate race.
“Rand Paul proved today that the party bosses can no longer hand pick their nominee,” Hoffman said. “The Tea Party movement and grassroots voters are changing the American political landscape one primary at a time.”
Maybe so.
But Democrats can take some comfort from the outcome of another key race, a special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district.
In many ways, that was a contest that looks more like the North Country. Republicans saw a real opportunity for a pick-up and funneled more than $1 million into the race.
But they lost handily, with Democrat Mark Critz snagging 53% of the vote. What happened to the populist uprising?
Here’s Politico’s take:
Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn’t really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy and offers comfort to a Democratic Party that is desperately in search of a glimmer of hope.
The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory. According to one recent poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the 12th was a dismal 35 percent, compared to 55 percent who disapproved. His health care plan was equally unpopular—just 30 percent of those polled supported it, while 58 percent were in opposition.
The bottom line? So far, tea partiers have been very, very effective at knocking off establishment Republicans.
But we’ve yet to see clear evidence that the movement will produce real gains for the GOP. This question will get a big test here in the North Country over the next five months.
Brian, the Tea Party that I am associated with is NOT associated with the GOP!!! I know it seems to be natural to link a basically conservative group like the TP with a formerly conservative group like the Republicans, but until you wrap your mind around separating the two you’ll continue to miss the big picture.
Maybe the guys you associate with are GOP at the core, but the people I know are disgusted with the GOP.
This result is exactly why I hate hearing about the “horse-race” on NPR. The results of the election show a strong win for progressive Democrats and most of the talk is about the teabaggers. Rand Paul gets a win, true, but he isn’t representative of the teabag movement. Paul gets momentum from his father’s supporters. The big loser, the Republican party, which is too bad because you can bet that they will take the wrong message from this and try to move even further to the right.
So, now, how about some reporting from NPR about the strength of the Progressive movement in America? That is the real story.
“So far, tea partiers have been very, very effective at knocking off establishment Republicans.”
Yeah, like they knocked off Ted Kennedy’s seat (D), Jon Corzine’s seat (D), Creigh Deeds seat (D).
I think you’re right. It’s just the establishment Republicans who are losing.
“the Tea Party that I am associated with is NOT associated with the GOP”
Its seems like the tea party only endorse republicans. Why isn’t there any tea baggers running for office under the “Tea Party” and against the GOP?
The Tea Party seems to want to go backward.
I prefer going forward.
This why I belong to the Coffee Party.
Pete, why do you think that? Sounds to me like you’ve taken the medias pre-digested pablum version of “reporting” about the TP as gospel. The main ideals behind the TP are honesty, accountability, fiscal discipline and an end to the move towards an old fashioned, outdated idea called socialism.
Bret,
There are two groups using the label ‘Tea Parties’ out there; one is a GOP front group led by Dick Armey, the other is a grassroots organization. When you hear stories like “Tea Partiers want to repeal the 17th Amendment”, it is probably coming from the establishment group. Dave Weigel at the Washington Post (previously at the Washington Independent) has a lot of good coverage of the schism. You’re right that many media outlets have not done a good job at reporting on the movement.
At the end of the day, the TP is similar to the online progressive movement – forcing their party to pay attention to their base instead of pandering to the center. As long at TP candidates run under the “R” label, they will be associated with the GOP.
JDM,
I would chalk up Scott Brown’s victory to the Tea Party, but as far as NJ and VA are concerned, those two elections were waged by the GOP; the candidates were picked by the Republican Party, not the Tea Partiers.
The tea party seems to get way too much credit for unrelated (or minimally related) political success – and way too much blame for political failures. Overall I am very skeptical of their actual influence – and numbers – and a little perplexed by the amount of media coverage they get.
For example, the Scott Brown election is one I am very familiar with. We moved from MA only a week or so before the election and were still registered to vote in it. Exit polling in that election was pretty clear, and none of it suggested the tea party played a significant role in the outcome.
Unless, of course, you somehow attribute any and all anti-establishment feelings to the tea party. In that case we are right back to the first sentence of my comment.
verplanck:
I would take Chris Christie any day, tea party, GOP, whatever. (and he is exactly what the tea party is looking for)
Brian’s point seemed a little amiss, however, that Republicans, not Democrats, are going to be outed by the tea party movement.
Dave,
Brown courted the Tea Party, adopted many of its critiques, and got a ‘moneybomb’ tossed his way so the political shorthand used is that he was a TP candidate. It is true that he was running before the TP focused on the election, so they can’t claim he’s totally ‘one of theirs’.
JDM,
Just because he is someone you can agree with doesn’t mean he is a Tea Partier. Is there a record out there of Christie signing on to TP statements? Did Christie get any ‘moneybombs’ tossed his way?
We’ll see in November if the TP has real political legs, but right now they’re 1 for 2 (Brown win, Hoffman loss). Not enough data to draw any real conclusions at this point.
How many House special elections have been held in the last 16 months? How many have been won by Democrates?
PNElba,
According to the Washington Monthly, there have been seven special elections for U.S. House seats: NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, FL19, and PA12. Democrats have won all seven.
Verplanck, I agree.
Brown did court the tea party, and they in turn supported him. But saying that was the reason he won is something completely different.
There is data to support the former, but not much to support the latter.
Verplanck, I count ten.
LA-6: Don Cazayoux (D) replaces Richard Baker (R), May 2008
MS-1: Travis Childers (D) replaces Roger Wicker (R), May 2008
MD-4: Donna Edwards (D) replaces Albert Wynn (D), June 2008
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D) replaces Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D), November 2008
NY-20: Scott Murphy (D) replaces Kirsten Gillibrand (D), March 2009
IL-5: Mike Quigley (D) replaces Rahm Emanuel (D), April 2009
CA-32: Judy Chu (D) replaces Hilda Solis (D), July 2009
CA-10: John Garamendi (D) replaces Ellen Tauscher (D), November 2009
NY-23: Bill Owens (D) replaces John McHugh (R), November 2009
PA-12: Mark Critz (D) replaces John Murtha (D), May 2010
verplanck:
“Just because he is someone you can agree with doesn’t mean he is a Tea Partier.”
Technically, they don’t have to agree with “me”, but I understand what you are saying.
In my thinking, if someone agrees with the tea-partiers, it doesn’t matter what they call themselves, I support them!
Hey Pete, the rest of us are over at the Keg Party
The bottom line is pretty simple: In order for Republicans to retake a majority — or even substantially reduce the Democratic lead — they have to start winning some of these competitive races like the one in Pennsylvania.
As we saw last night, that trick is complicated by several issues.
1) Democrats are well-funded and know that their backs are to the wall. No chance here for a 1994-style sneak attack.
2) Republicans are divided. The tea party and the establishment want different things and that’s affecting everything from messaging to fundraising.
3) The GOP brand is still heavily damaged from the Bush years. Polls still show significantly more Americans identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans.
There are a lot of months to go, but so far I’m sticking by my prediction that the GOP will make significant gains, but nothing tectonic.
–Brian, NCPR
Brian M, I heard something today on the radio regarding that special election in PA, I checked it out and it appears to be true. That district is 2-1 registered DEMOCRAT and it’s a large Union area gerrymandered to be a strong Dem district. At that, the Democrat only got 53% of the vote?
Maybe you want to take another look at it and see if that was such a decisive win after all.
Bret,
That Pa. district went for McCain in 2008, and was trending away from the Dems. It hates Obama. It relies a lot on defense contracts. It’s got a lot of Reagan Dem leanings (remember, much of the South used to be majority Dem in the 80s, but still voted for GOPers). That’s why the GOP spent $1M on a special election.
Brian’s facts are straight.
Maybe we simply read to much into these elections. The guy was a long time Murtha aid was well known locally, was pro-life, pro-gun, etc, but maybe he is just a good local guy that people liked, nothing more nothing less?
Brian, the fund-raising thing for the Republicans is huge. Historically Republicans lined up early behind a candidate and they had overwhelming campaign funding advantages. This year the GOP is being forced to spend lots of money early fending off tea party challenges. Couple that with chairman Steele’s seemingly never-ending problems and the GOP is going to be hurting for money like never before (my prediction.)
Also, with about 5 months left before the election there is a lot of time for the wingnut fringe on the right to discredit the political right.
So here’s my prediction; the GOP will not make significant gains in the election this fall. And I’ll make you a wager: if you’re right I’ll make you a custom cup holder (the nicest cup holder you’re likely to ever see) for your lawn mower, if I’m right you have to rake my lawn (just the relatively small front lawn).
I dunno anon, there are still a lot of “row A/row B’ voters out there.