Can Rick Lazio stop New York’s Republican death spiral?
Rick Lazio (Photo source: Lazio for Governor website)
It’s incredibly difficult to find a narrative for the Republican Party in New York state that makes any sense.
The GOP has seen its major potential candidates — Rudy Giuliani and George Pataki — shuffle toward the exits.
Despite some promising early poll numbers, the party failed to find a candidate who can seriously challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.
And now, with Attorney General Andrew Cuomo boasting poll numbers in rock-star territory, the Republican convention has devolved into a shooting match between three politicians that no one has ever heard of.
Rick Lazio was the politician sacrificed in the Hillary Clinton Senate race a decade ago, after Giuliani dropped out. In this second act of his political career, he’s built a credible, if uninspired, campaign machine.
But GOP chairman Ed Cox recruited a Democrat, Steve Levy, to challenge him. Levy won’t officially be a Republican until after the November election.
And then there’s Buffalo businessman Carl Palladino, who’s threatening to run as an independent tea party candidate if he doesn’t get the Republican nod. Oh, and he has $10 million he’s willing to spend.
Put bluntly, this is the kind of things that organizations do when there’s no real hope of doing anything productive.
When no one can make a rational argument for beating Cuomo (or prevailing any other statewide race), then the irrational arguments kick in.
The problem for the rest of us, of course, is that the last couple of years have made it crystal clear that we need (at least) two functioning political parties.
One-party rule has been a disaster. And without competitive political races, it’s nearly impossible to find out what politicians actually think.
Finally, it’s difficult for local Republicans — in places like the North Country — to compete without a credible standard-bearer at the top of the ticket.
If nothing else, this convention will test Lazio.
If he emerges as the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, and somehow manages to unite and energize his increasingly punch-drunk party, it will be a sign that he’s a leader worth watching.
Seriously dude? Did you not notice Lazio’s lack of a campaign? How do you not see that that’s the reason the GOP is in this mess?
Lazio hasn’t reported even a million dollars in his bank. (His campaign bank, he was given more than that as a personal bonus for his part in getting the nation in this financial mess.) He has barely 2,000 followers on twitter. He has fewer than 10,000 fans on his facebook page, on which he doesn’t respond to questions or concerns. He also fails to update it with his latest “strategy session” videos.
Lazio created the mess the GOP is in. But for Lazio’s incompetence, Cox wouldn’t have had to do what he’s done.
Brian, Politicians never say what they really think in campaigns anyway. They say what they think their supporters want to hear. The Republicans problem is that they no longer have a defined set of supporters.
There is very little evidence of the top of the ticket theory. A lot of people vote for the person and not party. Just because someone votes for Cuomo doesn’t mean they’ll vote for other Democrats. Nearly all Republicans won reelection in the 2006 Spitzer landslide.
The more interesting story is not why republicans are doing so poorly but why are democrats doing so well? There is no indication that Andrew Cuomo will be any sort of an effective Governor why the support? There is also no indication that any of these republican candidates could do anything so I am not surprised that they have little support. The democrats have more money so they must be effectively controlling the spin. Both parties should be in a “death spiral” why only one? Have the democrats proven themselves over the past four years? What have I missed, I am a little confused?
Good point Paul. The Democrats are still running on Plan B- Blame Bush. That would be fine but their guy has been in office here in NY for 5 or so years and well over a year in the White and they’ve had Congress for 3-4 years anyway. What have they done to fix anything? Nothing, just borrowed more, made more promises, spent more and garnered more power for themselves. At this point the Dems could run Howdy Doody for Gov and he’d win.
WHY?
CC & Scratchy,
CC- Lazio’s certainly a weak candidate but he’s not the genesis of the GOP’s problems, I suggest that the proximal cause is former Gov. Pataki. He weakened the party, it’s brand, fund raising and so forth. He’s the reason why the GOP’s been running behind in counties that have long gone GOP and why it’s no longer in control of the senate. The fact that the party can’t find a stronger R to run isn’t Lazio’s fault it’s the party-in-the organization’s fault.
Scratchy- the overwhelming evidence from the voting literature is that party id is the single best predictor of one’s vote. Fewer people than you think are behaviorally independent, that is, as you suggest, they vote for the person & not party. (See the latest NES data if you’re curious.)
Also, I think that nationally the GOP has decided that NYS is “forever blue”, a lost cause. It makes sense when you look at the makeup of the majority of voters, they wouldn’t vote for a republican if they had to do it to save their lives. The areas on NYS that used to have stronger republican support are changing demographically and diluting the GOP support that used to exist in some areas. People are moving from downstate to retire in places like the Adirondacks and they are voting as they would when the lived in downstate. I was in line a grocery store this past weekend in Saranac Lake and was speaking with two people in line. One was a nice old lady who had moved to Saranac Lake from Manhattan (she was complaining about too many people in Lake Placid). And the other guy was a younger guy who had moved from Greenwich village (he agreed with her that crowds of tourist, the towns bread-and-butter, were a bad thing), who do you think they are voting for in November?
Its a one party state. The Republicans are not Republicans in any sort of meaningful way, they are just another Democrat like party that wants power. It is kind of like modern Russia it is not really about ideology but more about power and cronyism and of course organized crime and corruption. It is why we spend so much on government yet the money does not really help the poor but instead is diverted to vested interests. It is a machine and a very effective one.
I would agree there are a lot of people still voting Row or Row B. Union types will vote D till they die, ex-military tend to vote R. The apolitical types are the wild cards, like m,y wife. Her sole political stands were hating Nancy Reagan (???) and hating Hillary. Then along came Sarah Palin. A working Mom with a special needs baby, and she’s not a Washington/NYC/California elitist?!!! That’s the first time I’ve ever seen her care at all. So who knows what the future will bring, but I don’t put any faith in the R’s or the D’s giving us responsible leaders.
Does your wife hate or love(like dislike) Palin? Me, I think Palin is a quitter and if the republicans or tea-whatevers are wanting her as a leader in their party then they’ve lost my vote.
I think she just sees here as a real person, or far more real than we’re used to. That doesn’t mean she’d vote or her, just that she sparked her interest.
Palin may not be Presidential material, that’s fine. If she stirs the interest in some other people who are more electable and with conservative values that’s good enough in itself. I think she’s far more qulaified than the empty suit currently in the office.
lazio couldn’t find his @ss with both hands, and palin is as dumb as a cedar fence post.
sounjds like a winning republican ticket. now’s all we need is for a bunch of red-necked layovers from the reagan-bush era to vote for them with, hopefully, their DYING breath.
And people accuse me of being cynical?
Take a look around my friend, things were much much better under the Reagan-Bush I era than they are today of course that was 20 years ago.
I guess I don’t blame young people for being somewhat cynical given the future they are being handed from the people in power today.
But people who wish for others to die have bigger problems than can be addressed politically.
I know things were better economically under Reagan, Bush I and Clinton, then they are now, it is an objective fact. They were best under Clinton. We had a 20 year period 1982-2000 where things were pretty good. The times we live in are not determined by who is in the White House, they have some influence sure but they are not the drivers of our circumstances. Opportunities are made not handed out by the government and they are not dependent on how old bastards like me vote (although I am not thaaat old) . If you wait around for the politics to be right for someone to hand you an opportunity well good luck with that.
By the way, the WWII generation is largely dead, the old guard today those who are retired and retiring are the hippies, but you should like them they could help with your revolution.
As far as your worry about the debt I totally agree check out the total US debt in 1990, 2000 and 2010.
1/2 of the hippies smell bad and all they want to do is hug trees. the other half sold out long ago and became yuppies once they realized they could market that crap they used to sell to the other hippies at the “tribe gatherings” hippies dropped that ball along with all that acid they did.
i don’t think politics will ever hand me anything but a tab for the bill, that’s why the revolution is needed, unfortunately we’ll have to conscript the illegal aliens to fight so it will be affordable.
the times ARE influenced by who is in the white house, it is the mileu, the ocean if you like, that the fish swim in. “the most powerfull office in the land”. when the water is foul, so is the shore it touches. ask louisianna.
the better economics we experienced under reagan came back and bit us hard in the you know where, once the buzz from the high went away.
reagan was a TOOL. if they do put him on the fifty like they want it will be apprapoe, since you’ll need a fifty to buy what was a dollars worth of bread.
How about Clinton was he a tool? Clinton had a more prosperous run than Reagan and was in office more recently. The President is the most powerful man in one branch of our federal government, which is only one part of our total government, and the government is only one part of our country.
What impact does the federal government have on us today as we sit here? We are much more impacted by what our county legislature does or our local police do or our local schools do, none of those are part of the federal government or under the control of the federal government.
But I do understand your frustration many people feel it.
are u suggesting that i think reagan was a tool because he was in your opinion- “successful”? so then clinton should also be a tool?
please.
clinton was a fool who couldn’t keep it in his pants. he blew it for all gore who might have been the guy to keep us out of iraq, afghani, and the rest of that scum hole of the middle east. he lowered our debt, was loved on the global stage and still continues to succeed in foriegn affairs i.e. getting cute asian chicks out of north korea.
the federal government will overturn anything a state does it does not like i.e. arizona and the tide of illegal immigrants. if it were any other country(other than israel) we would be all in their face about the quality of life that is so poor and lopsided the only place to go from there is north to our country. the feds love the cheap work force, and the potential voting pool. if they had to swim here it would be no different than cuban or haitian immigration-we send them back- immediately.
the boys and girls on the state level emulate everything their big brothers in the federal branch do- mainly help themselves and Fook us. their aspirations are to get up to the federal level eventually.
when a man like patterson tries to go against them, to project the will of the people he serves (true or not), well he gets voted out.
the feds set the tone for the rest to follow.
its a confederacy of dunces as far as i feel. cahoots (a great album by the band by the way) out for themselves and their families.
i don’t expect to have to devote my life to becoming one of the ruling class just to screw the rest of the “peons” as if superior and more deserving.
any long islanders out there? what do you think of lazio record? his obstructive lobbying? what about steve levy’s flip flop?
hell if that does not demonstrate the fact political parties are ridiculous, what does. he does’nt care if he’s labled one way or the other as long as it opens an avenue for him to run for office.
republicans and democrats are the same- intent on fighting each other for the right to lord over the people, whom they expect to fight their battles for them. they squeeze us till there is no more blood to get from the stones they treat us like.
the police are dogs on a leash jerked by whom ever gets controll of it.
what kind of man or woman thinks this is a honorable profession? there was no other option/career choice opeen to them? no other skills?
if you can swing a blackjack you can swing a hammer.
or is it just a civil service means to an end, gotta feed the family no? there another sub-level of the ruling class. man’s own inhumanity to himself. it is their opinion that there is
“plenty of law at the end of a nightstick”
while i believe that
“there can be no law sacred to me but that of my own nature”
frustration is not the half of it. this mess is creating a time bomb, figuratively as well as literally.
tick tock tick tock tick tock……
Well that is certainly dramatic. But we will be fine. As you get older you will see the natural ups and downs of life and the economy. Some people are corrupt some do the best they can but we have had much more corrupt politicians in the past than we have had in the last 50 years. We survived a depression with 25% unemployment, we survived a civil war and a two world wars ;we will certainly survive whatever it is we are going through now which in historical context is not that bad.
Are there any moderators working here? Just say no’s use of the “F” word, even if it is spelled differently is disgusting, juvenile and ignorant. But then all his/her posts are ignorance defined anyway. Another know it all with no clue.
bret, if it annoys you, i’m happy. you my friend are boorish and snooty.
And you can’t write without resorting to foul language, you can’t spell, capitalize or use common punctuation. Grow up kid and get your head on straight.
i was waiting for the grammar criticizims. punctuation is a waste of time.
you have seemed to get the point without capitals, with typing/spelling slips, so no harm done. my head is on straighter than a kansas road, and not nearly as far up my own @ss as yourn is.
if you can’t handle a little vernacular language now and then i pitty you.
why don’t you apply for the moderator’s position? that way only your posts can been seen here.
wanna go for a beer one day?
capitals, punctuation?
what’s that?
Being able to express yourself without using bad language and having the ability to at least use some proper grammar and spelling, will go a long ways toward helping you secure the future that you feel is being taken from you. I would think going into a job interview with the “punctuation is a waste of time” theme won’t help with future employers.
mervel,
i am successfully self employed, thank you, but i could use a new dishwasher on my kitchen crew. english language only. if you know anything about the usage of oxford commas, i’m sure you’ll advance quickly to food prep or salad girl/boy.
did the romans use punctuation?
i get the feeling that both you and bret are retired teachers living in keene valley, formerly of burlington, and about as white bread, milk toast as it gets.
Well I am glad things are going well for you. You are pretty far off on your ideas about myself, I don’t know about Bret. But anyway good luck to you and the revolution.
yeah, same to you.
The economy may have seemed better when raygun and shrub 1 were calling the shots. When you don’t mind running the national debt into the stratosphere under your watch, things appear better in the short run. Shrub 1 had to raise taxes, ‘member? You can’t live on credit forever, a lesson some have not learned. Than, when dems are elected, they catch hell for having to try to get us back into the real world.
Twenty five years of growth and prosperity is not the “short run”.
But as far as running the national debt into the statosphere simply look at the national debt when President Obama and the Democrats took control and what it is today a mere two years later. Also check what the projections are for what it will be in 2012. These are not numbers that are in question. I have not seen one single proposal from this administration or from Congress that does not include spending more government money and increasing the debt even further, not one.
….but wait they are “not the drivers of our circumstances” so it shouldn’t matter. right mervel?
if the previous administrations can not be held accountable for getting us in debt, then how can we say that after five years obama has done nothing to fix it?
hippocrites
by the way 25 years is “the short run” in the “grand scheme”. look past your life span, and maybe we wouldn’t find ourselves in such a mess
But two cents the federal government does control the federal government debt. But that does not mean that they are the drivers of our circumstances, they are not kings. If they continue to nationalize the economy then I would have to change my stance on that for sure.
The previous administrations most certainly CAN and should be held accountable for giving us debt just as this one should be. But the numbers will be easy to analyze regarding the relative debt increases amassed during each administration it is not a matter of opinion it is what it is.
Well I realize this is ancient history, but there used to this outfit called the USSR and a thing called the “Cold War”. That’s where a lot of the debt and spending practices come from. Of course some foul mouthed posters here don’t remember the Cold War or Jimmy Carters “Misery Index” or having Iran run our esteemed President ragged as he tirelessly searched for an answer to the problem by micro managing the White House Tennis Court schedule. And you call Reagan a “tool” ?
And Dan, lets not forget that your beloved Democrats controlled the Congress when Bush 1 had to raise taxes. They spent the money, remember? The Dems were right there the whole time spending and taxing and the Repubs were quite happy to help them. No way the Dems ever tried to “fix” the problem.
Just say no- please, where is this eatery of yours? I wish to avoid it at all costs. I doubt you wash after using the john, or before for that matter.
Bret,
I see by your comment that you are on the highest levels of the American intellectual ladder. If you misspell or speak roughly, you must be unclean as well?
Who is behaving like the child?
“just say no” made some very good points, which you ignored.
I have watched (read) you here on this blog for some time now, and if anyone is the know it all, it’s you.
You really do need a hobby. Get outside, life is short.
Mervel,
before you criticize someone’s punctuation and grammar, re-read some of your posts.
If you think about it the debt will actually serve as a constraint on government.
2 cents, please enlighten me as to what valid points of fact say no made? He/she has no valid comments to make, just complaints and opinion based not of fact, but on feelings. News flash- Social Security isn’t going to be there for me either! I’ve been complaining about debt and spending here for months. Many here see the same problems as say no, but we can make our points without using horribly foul language and insults. So tell me just what point was made that hasn’t been covered to death here before?
Horribly foul?
Please, you’re killing me!
So if the point has been made here before. it can’t be repeated without being labled as invalid?
Bret, you must live in a lovely ivory tower….It’s not my job nor anyone else’s to enlighten you on anything, besides, you know it all already.
Tell me a little about yourself, personally. What makes you qualified as the self appointed yardstick we are all to measure ourselves against?
Bret’s typicaly condescending tone is more disturbing than anything i’ve witnessed on this blog, “foul” language or not.
bret is a retired cop, wanna-be farmer. need i say more?
Yeah, please, go ahead and tell me all about myself. You have all the answers, go for it.
What do you mean “need I say more”?
We should keep this on topic which was kind of interesting or was until we got personal.
you’re retired usmc, father was a gunsmith, 6 kids….
ahahaha me?? Cool.
1 out of 3 right. Try harder next time.
http://www.milsurps.com/showthread.php?t=1083&page=63
0ne out of three? you must be fibbing then to your other blog pals. be carful bret, baby jesus cries when you lie.
oops sorry-
“careful”
That is kind of creepy you took the time to do that.
Lets just stay on topic I mean who cares who bret4207 is or mervel is or just say no is, shouldn’t we look at the ideas and stick with that?