Brian’s late-summer Mid-term predictions. What are yours?
Okay, so those of you who hate the horse-racey stuff, click away. This one’s definitely not for you. This post is the low-brow equivalent of baseball box-score stuff.
I’m making my picks for November, so that you can rate me after the ballots are counted. If you want to play, put your picks in the comment section below.
(Note that because I’ll be covering NY-20, NY-23 and NY-24, I won’t be making picks about those races. But you’re welcome to have at it…)
So here it is:
US Senate:
Republicans will pick up fewer seats than expected. I’m putting the number at between 3 and 5.
Here’s why. Charlie Crist in Florida will prevail in Florida and will caucus with the Dems. That’s a loss for the GOP, off-setting other gains.
Harry Reid will prevail in Nevada, scotching what should have been an easy pick-up for Republicans.
US House:
Republicans will pick up 30 seats, putting them at a far more respectable 208.
But that will still leave Democrats with 227 seats and will maintain Nancy Pelosi’s grip on the House Speaker gavel.
(Just to be provocative, I’ll note that Speaker Pelosi’s majority will STILL be almost as large as Speaker Newt Gingrich’s was after the 1994 Republican Revolution…)
Here’s why. A thirty-seat gain is very respectable and factors in the clear anxiety Americans feel about the economy and the direction of the country.
But it also factors in the widespread disarray within the GOP, the party’s shortage of campaign cash, and a largely negative message.
To run the table and reclaim the majority in one election cycle Republicans will have to do a lot better.
Also, while the “generic” ballot favors Republicans, a lot of these Democrats are savvy, well-funded politicians. They’re fighting for their lives and some will keep their noses above water.
So there’s my late-summer prediction. Chime in and make your picks below.
Tags: election10
I hope that you are correct. I would like to see the Democrats continue to control both houses. If that happens, it may prove to be the biggest help for 2012 Presidential Election.
Murphy and Owens hold on in the north country -don’t know about the other district. I’m assuming Cuomo for gov.
I agree that the GOP sweep will not be a strong as predicted, but which races specifically do you think they’ll lose? Nevada and Kentucky, probably – which others?
Oops. I missed the line about Reid.
Brian,
How about making this more specific to us? Who’s going to win in NY 20, NY 23 and NY senate?
Anyone know why Owens used to donate to Al D’Amato and other Republicans? That’ sends kind of a mixed message.
They were probably all RINO’s and that’s why he donated to them. I like a congressman that can cross the isle and do what’s right for us instead of allways parroting the party line.
Predictions:
Nevada goes to Reid
Paul may get Kentucky but it will be close.
Overall dem majority in the house
More deadlock in the Senate.
Nothing gets done for another two years because we all know the the presidential election started last year. Only this time each side will claim “this is the will of the people” no matter who comes out ahead.
“Anyone know why Owens used to donate to Al D’Amato and other Republicans? That’ sends kind of a mixed message.”
Yeah, because he used to work for Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane & Trombley. Sen. Stafford (R)?
Hoffman takes the primary and the election.
House goes to the Republicans.
Senate, about even-Steven after the election.
Bret,
PNElba’s got it right. Owens was managing partner of St. Ronald Stafford’s law firm. St. Ronald led the GOP-controlled state Senate for years.
Does McHugh’s working for Obama also send a mixed message, or is that just bipartisanship?
By the way, what rightwing web site is using Owens’ GOP contributions as fodder for the argument that he’s bad for the GOP?
Follow the money. In US politics the guy with the most money almost always wins, it is that simple. Given that I would suspect democrats to do better than some are predicting.
Obama had more money – he won.
Bush had more money – he won.
Clinton had more money – he won…….
Owens is not that liberal.
I agree with Brian – the Democrats will have a narrower majority in the House & Senate, but still a majority. The Kentucky Senate seat will flip, as Paul continues to self-distruct. Reid keeps his seat in Nevada. In the House, Murphy and Owens will keep their seats.
The day after election day, the media theme will be how the Republicans blew the election (despite posting modest gains). And then all-out war will start between the TeaParty faction and the old guard – obviously the scrimaging has already started. What happens next is anyones guess, but I predict one hell of a 2012 election season!
Hi guys – I would love to chime in on the Arcuri, Owens and Murphy races, but I’ll be reporting on those so I have to keep my powder dry. I will say that all three look very competitive (I know, yawn) and I will also say that for the GOP to turn a good year into a great year they need to win at least two of them.
–Brian, NCPR
Thanks, Brian. Looking forward to the coverage.
The argument goes that will Obama wants to get in touch with a demographic that wouldn’t ordinarily vote in midterm elections except if the candidates performed screeching, off-key truck covers of Whitney Houston songs. Wasn’t it just a week ago that the media was slamming Obama for “demeaning” the office on the President of america by appearing on the particular Daily Show? I can’t wait in order to hear what the pearl-clutchers within the media have to say about it latest GOTV effort by President.