UPDATE: Are Democrats doomed in November? Yes and no.
See my original post below for full context, but I’ve been poll-surfing the last couple of hours and have a couple of additional thoughts.
A lot of the most dire prognostications about the Democrats are based around one poll: Gallup’s 10-point generic ballot advantage lead for Republicans.
Again, granted — that’s dire. But when you look at the trend-line for generic ballot surveys, you find that the average GOP advantage is only 3%. A Zogby poll just last week put the Republican advantage at 2%.
And just last week, Gallup’s own survey was only at at +3% mark for Republicans.
Now, here’s a caveat to my skepticism:
Most of these surveys don’t factor in “likely voter” models, and it could well be that the energized conservative base will still push us into Republican landslide territory.
But do I think the fine-print of the election 2010 narrative may be more complicated than the conventional wisdom…
ORIGINAL POST:
This week, political prognosticator-extraordinaire Larry Sabato predicted that Republicans will not only seize control of the House of Representatives in November — they’ll do it handily, with a pick-up of roughly 47 seats.
“Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a ‘net’ number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. “
First some context: Sabato is really good at making predictions like this, and I’m not. So take the rest of this post with a big grain of salt.
But I’m still skeptical that the blow-out — and yes, it will be a blow-out — is going to be this bad.
Here’s why:
There are 168 solidly Democratic House seats. To keep control, the Dems have to find fifty additional wins across the US in districts that aren’t solidly Democratic.
Most pundits believe the GOP will lose at least three of the House seats it currently holds, so that brings the Democrats’ must-win list down to 47.
According to the New York Times — and other analysts — there are roughly 50 additional House races that are “leaning” Democratic; and another 30 seats that are tossups.
Further out on a limb, there are roughly a dozen more seats currently held by Republicans where unique local conditions could give Democrats a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset. (Here’s an example.)
With that big a battlefield in play, can the Democrats claw together 47 wins? In a Republican wave year like this one, it’s going to be brutally hard, but I’m still predicting Yes.
The GOP has incredible momentum, but the party is also divided and muddled, and some of its candidates lack the funding to capitalize on the national mood.
What’s more, many of these races are in parts of the country — the West and the Northeast — where the anti-Democratic zeitgeist isn’t so fierce.
Also, despite their dispirited base, the Democrats still have some big assets in play, including their union-led get-out-the-vote apparatus, and an incredibly sophisticated electronic voter-contact-and-mobilization system.
So here’s my updated late-summer prediction, the Out On A Limb edition: Democrats will hold the House and Senate by a razor-thin margin.
Tags: election10
You might want to check out realclearpolitics.com and this concise district-by-district polling data throughout the US.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html
Each district is shown based on the spread of the latest poll available for that district.
JDM – Yeah, this is good, and it re-enforces my basic point.
If you take the RCP survey with Solid and Likely Democratic seats, that puts you at 167.
Add in the Leans Democratic seats and that puts them at 188.
Which means that Dems still need to claw together about 20 wins from the Toss-up and Leans-Republican contests.
Brutally hard, yes. But a lot of those races are in parts of the country (the West, the Northeast, the Great Lakes) where Dems aren’t so deeply unpopular.
Brian, NCPR
Personally, I like 538 better than Real Clear Politics. They have a good track record and I like the statistical methods they use. They put the chances of Dems holding the Senate at 52.3% and 79% that Dems will hold 50 seats in the Senate. Their House data is here and also shows more seats “leaning Democrat” than “leaning Republican” with 31 labeled tossup. Still, I’m not optimistic that the House will be held by the Democrats.
I was sure Al Gore would win the Presidency in 2000, so my predictive skills are not the greatest.
Heard this factoid lately, twice: in recent history whenever the House flips, the Senate flips, but not vice versa. The left-leaning pundits seem to be focusing on a likely switch in the Senate, but not in the House.
I like 538, too. I’m eager to see Nate’s House predictions when they’re ready – he’s promising the detailed analysis soon.
For what it’s worth, he’s still predicting a 79% chance that Democrats hold onto control of the Senate. (In the case of a tie, Biden would cast deciding votes…)
Brian, NCPR
In 1994, the Republicans won 8 seats from the Democrats to take control of the Senate.
Nate House is conceding a potential larger victory (9 seats is a tie) for Republicans this year, apparently.
Whether or not they take control isn’t the issue. It’s a landslide of historic proportions that the libs will try to undersell because it wasn’t 10 seats.
What it is, is an Obama disaster.
JDM –
Your post is correct in this sense: There will be a huge fight to interpret the outcome of the election from all sides.
My first basic read on the election is this: It now appears that 2008 was an aberration in that it gave one party a mandate to govern.
Huge supermajorities in the House and Senate, along with a clear popular vote victory in the presidential race.
2010 suggests a correction back to the weary reality of modern America: we’re tied.
Even in a huge surge year, with the economy in the dumps, it appears that the GOP will — if they win a majority — manage a scant one.
So what do the two parties do with that information?
Republicans appear to be quite confident shifting more and more to the right, with voters following them in that migration.
Will Democrats also shift to the left in order to lock up their base, or will they search for some kind of governing center?
–Brian, NCPR
PNElba said:
“I was sure Al Gore would win the Presidency in 2000, so my predictive skills are not the greatest.”
Actually, PNElba, Al Gore did win the presidency in 2000!
Hank, it’s ironic, isn’t it?
Hank, Al Gore did not win. Get over it.
Actually, due to Repub scare tactics (“Oh,no! A Constitutional crisis!”), we’ll never know which way the vote went in 2000.
But, we have a pretty good idea who won.
We know who lost.
There is so much coverage of House races on this blog. How about a little discussion on competitive NNY state legislatitive races?
The really bad news for the Democratic party came about 2 years ago when Howard Dean left the party chairmanship.
Republican, Democrat, who cares? My question is: Who will save us from them but ourselves?
All of them want to sell us the American Dream, a joke if there ever was one. We all have our dreams and all the dreams are different. Same with politicians. Their dream is to get elected and ride the gravy train at our expense.
Stop and think. Politicians are part of the service economy and the only thing the service economy is to make money (nothing else) for those who provide a service you can usually do with out.
Pete Klein:
You don’t seem to take into account that those politicians can take away all you have, all your freedoms, and put you into a concentration camp if they so desire.
It would do well for us not to become complacent or think they won’t do it if we turn our backs or fall asleep.
“All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing”
I heard that Camp Gabriels might be turned into a concentration camp. All the road signs in that area have bar codes on the back and I hear helicopters every day. Did you also hear that Obamacare plans to put chips in us all?
Some people cannot grasp that politicians are their own form of evil. The longer they are there, the more career politicians we elect, the worse it gets.
JDM,
I do take into account the problems/dangers you mention. The problem, the way I see it, is that Democrats want to take away one half of our freedoms while the Republicans want to take away the other half.
Could someone please step forward with a platform where they promise not to pass any laws but do promise to start removing the millions of laws on the books. This should include policies which are just a sneaky form of passing a law.
Pete, that’d be the Tea Party type organizations candidates.
Democrats doomed, see pics
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=243484&id=539859514&fbid=463379554514
Dang Knuck, that’s pretty funny. Almost as good as some of the ads on Craigslist. “Wanted- 1 st cut hey”, “Hafer Caff for sail”, “…will traid for…”.
Spell check is God’s gift to mankind.
My prediction? The Repubs blow it big time and things continue down the tubes.
I hope that the Dems can maintain control of both houses of Congress. If that happens, Obama should have no problems continuing on with his current agenda. The last thing I want to hear when he’s running for re-election in 2012, is “I could have saved you, but the Repubs wouldn’t let me!”