10 things Matt Doheny has to do next (and all at once, fast)
Matt Doheny has roughly seven weeks to pivot from a tough and expensive primary to a tough and expensive general election race against incumbent Democrat Bill Owens. Here’s how he might do it.
1. Convince Doug Hoffman to concede and garner his endorsement in the general election. If Hoffman continues to run as a Conservative candidate over the next 7 weeks, it’s probably game-over.
2. Meet with Conservative and tea party leaders and get them on board, too. UNYTEA’s Mark Barie has telegraphed some openness to reunifying the conservative movement.
3. Convince national Republicans to buy in. So far, according to Congressional Quarterly, the NRCC still hasn’t bought ad time in the 23d district. Doheny will need that support down the stretch.
4. Debate, debate, debate. Doheny needs to appear on stage with Democrat Bill Owens and show that he has a command of the issues and the presence to be the next congressman.
5. Figure out where the missing Republican voters went and get them mobilized. Despite his apparent win, he only garnered about 25% of the vote that Doug Hoffman won last year — and Hoffman lost.
6. Go big with TV and radio advertising. This will be tough because Bill Owens holds a significant cash advantage, but Doheny has to find a way to compete in the air.
7. Appeal to independents. It’s a fine line, but if Doheny shifts too far to the right to try to lock in the tea party crowd, he’ll alienate the North Country’s moderate Republicans and independents.
8. Find a way to appeal to Republicans on the eastern side of the district. Bill Owens is seen as a friendly face by many within the GOP in Clinton, Essex and Franklin counties. If those folks defect, because of geographic loyalty, it’ll be tough for Doheny.
9. Build a ground team comparable to Owens’ union support to get out the vote. This won’t be easy, but county GOP leaders showed more spunk in this primary race — maybe they can build a hefty door-to-door effort.
10. It’s worth saying twice: solve the Hoffman problem. Doug Hoffman fought his way very close to parity again, without support of a major party. If he lingers on the scene, Doheny’s path to victory will be rocky indeed.
Tags: election10
1, 2 and 10 are at odds with 3 & 7. He risks losing both indys and conservatives if he tries pandering to both at the same time.
I think he needs to decide whether he will convert to a Tea Partier or make a stand for the “old guard” of the GOP. This election will be decided by enthusiasm, and his best chance is to energize a slice of the electorate. Unfortunately for Doheny, it’s an either/or situation.
Whoa. Let’s wait until all the votes are counted.
Your suggestions make sense, but ordinarily, the liberal cry is “wait until all the votes are counted” and “every vote counts”.
JDM – One thing Matt Doheny can’t do, if he expects to win, is wait very long for anything. Today is one less day that he has to fight this fight…
But yes, if in the end the final tally shows that Doug Hoffman won, then most of these 10 “must-do” items still apply to his campaign.
Brian, NCPR
Doug has to get out soon, if for no other reasons than financial.
Meaning that GOP/Conservative money that has thus far stayed on the sidelines awaiting the primary result, will now mobilize for Doheny.
Doug is now forced to fund himself, and that’s a no-win situation.
Also, Doug remaining in the race could hurt Doheny’s fundraising to some extent…..folks may not write checks to Doheny in a 3-way battle when they know Owens will win that one again.
Good suggestions. I suspect that Doheny will receive lots of NRCC $$, which will equalize the race on that front. As you suggest his biggest obstacle will be Hoffman. He’s an empty suit & if he’s true to form will create a headache for Doheny and quite possibly drain his energy, funds, and cost him the election. A measure of Doheny’s political prowess will be his ability to neutralize Hoffman.
Seems unlikely that the NRCC would get involved until the Hoffman issue is settled. The longer Doug waits, the harder it will be for Doheny.
This time Doug should bow out gracefully, if it turns out he’s lost, and quickly. Doheny is a world away from Scazzofava ideologically, and Doheny was elected by the GOP grassroots, not selected by party elites (even if those same elites supported him). Doheny is ideologically conservative, and comes off as a more compelling candidate and really seems more comfortable debating than Hoffman.
I undesrtand Hoffman pledged to Mike Long he’d run on the Conservative Party line come hell or high water, and the CP is in seriously dire straights right now with Paladino winning the GOP primary. But the CP should realize they took risks this year, and it did not pan out, so they’re going to have to petition to get back on the ballot next time no matter what. No reason to throw away NY-23 because you gambled and busted.
Doug stay in. Doheny is dishonest and will be no better in Washington then Owen. We need someone that will walk the talk. How many Democrats like myself were unable to work for Doug in the primary. But you know where my vote will be in the General election.
First of all there are lots of absentee ballots to be counted. secondly, a recount may change the vote total somewhat. It’s too early to declare Doheny the winner.
Wishful thinking by some of you. Generally absentee ballots mirror the election and from what I understand many of the votes were from areas that favored Doheny
Im actually an Owens support, I just happen to believe that a winner shouldnt be declared it is clear that have won. Many of the absentee ballots were likely filled out before Doheny’s attack ads and that could have an impact. In the special Owens was leading by 4 on election night. Within few weeks his lead was down to 2.
Dewey defeats Truman??? I doubt it.