NY21 analysis: Siena poll devastating for Doheny
As we plunge into the middle of September, Republican House candidate Matt Doheny just got walloped by the kind of poll numbers that keep political operatives awake at night.
Siena Research Institute’s survey will challenge the GOP candidate as nothing yet has in his multi-year bid to unseat Democratic congressman Bill Owens.
The narrative up to this point was pretty simple:
In the 2010 race, Doheny’s candidacy was derailed by Conservative Doug Hoffman and he still came within a hair’s breadth of toppling Owens. In a Republican-leaning region like the North Country, surely Doheny would prevail if given a one-on-one shot.
But the numbers out today tell a very different story. Doheny isn’t just trailing by 13 points in the overall “horse race” numbers. He’s also getting battered on nearly all the issues, and his support among Republican voters is astonishingly anemic.
A third of GOP voters in the North Country told Siena they’re pretty comfortable with Owens being re-elected. Only 60% say they’re supporting Doheny. The candidate’s favorability with rank and file Republicans is just 52%.
(Owens, meanwhile, has a favorability among Republicans that’s remarkably high, at 32%.)
Doheny spokesman Jude Seymour is arguing that the numbers are skewed by the fact that the poll was conducted, in part, while the Democratic National Convention was underway.
Seymour also notes that Republican Chris Gibson was trailing Democrat Scott Murphy in the old NY 20th district race at this point in 2010 by an even wider margin, yet Gibson surged to a decisive win.
But there’s a difference here: Doheny, unlike Gibson, isn’t a fresh face on the political scene. In September 2010, Gibson — a former Army officer — was just introducing himself to voters.
Doheny, by contrast, been a fixture in the North Country for a very long time now, working to garner support from Republican and Conservative committees across the region, campaigning aggressively in 2010.
And the simple fact is that, so far, even at this late date, his own party’s voters aren’t sold.
Part of the problem may be Doheny’s bitter contest with Hoffman in 2010. That fierce primary battle may have permanently alienated some tea party folks.
But there are also signs that some moderate Republicans haven’t caught the Doheny bug, symbolized by the cross-party endorsement of Owens by veteran North Country Republican assemblywoman Teresa Sayward.
Doheny also appears to have a real problem with women voters. Bill Owens holds a respectable 51-19% rating among women, with women viewing him more positively than negatively by a two-to-one margin.
Doheny, meanwhile, is viewed positively by just 33% of women, compared with 29% who view him unfavorably.
All of these factors give Doheny very little room to maneuver. And the bald truth is that he’s a different, less nimble candidate than Chris Gibson, who proved to be a natural on the stump, with a compelling back story.
There’s also the fact that Gibson won during the 2010 surge year for Republicans. Siena’s survey shows no similar groundswell for Republican or conservative issues in the North Country. On the contrary. Barack Obama is out-polling Mitt Romney.
Still, the Republican camp is correct that this is far from over. We’ll see in the coming days whether Doheny can find a message, and a trajectory for his campaign, that will begin to nibble away at Owens’ many advantages.
My sense is that Doheny will need something new, something big to shake up this race. The clock is ticking.
Tags: election12
Certainly very bad news for Doheny. My guess is that the support he is receiving from the national Republican Party and from the PACs will dry-up pretty quickly, as they shift their funds to races that are tighter.
I think Owens has found that ‘sweet-spot – slightly conservative moderate – formerly inhabited by John McHugh. That makes him highly re-electable in this district.
Owens has done very little to rile up non-fringey (ii.e, Tea Party) North Country Republicans. Toes the NRA line, supports Keystone Pipeline, voted for the Republican tax plan that continues cuts for billionaires (says he did that because Dem. inheritance tax provision would hit farms and small businesses, but still).
Support for Obamacare, stimulus, and other Dem programs is a winner with Dems and many moderates.
In meetings I’ve been to, he stressed bi-partisanship, one of few left in the House. Forming a small voting block with Gibson and VT’s Dem. Rep. on farm issues,
But I’m surprised to see Owensso far ahead, especially given the more conservative nature (I’m told) of the new areas of this District.
I am not too surprised. Owens is a classic type of democrat that republicans can support, especially in the North Country. His military service alone is enough for some. Besides his personality beats the other guy, that is very important when you step into the voting booth.
Wnew now that there’s an official poll out, I don’t have to think for myself anymore. What a relief!
Owens has worked hard with constituent service, getting back to people about their concerns, sometimes with a phone call from a staff member. His emphasis on jobs and economic development are important to many. Doheny has some baggage that doesn’t help. His two boating while under the influence charges within a couple weeks raises questions about his judgement and character.
“Wnew now that there’s an official poll out, I don’t have to think for myself anymore. What a relief!”
Yes, I never like to take into account how other people feel about an issue when I make a decision. Give me a break. The poll is just a poll.
Note to the wizards-of-smart in the GOP office that think a moderate is the way to go.
This election, where a moderate GOP is running unopposed, will show why you need to run a true conservative in order to win.
Hoffman almost pulled it off running third party. Imagine if the GOP machine had gotten behind him.
48-46-6 owens-doheny-hoffman.
?????
“Yes, I never like to take into account how other people feel about an issue”
This isn’t an issue. Polls about issues are marginally useful. Polls about “horse races” like this are merely for lemmings… and an excuse for reporters to avoid doing journalism.
Brian – Did you actually read Siena’s poll? Or listen to our coverage? This poll did delve into issues. That’s one of the things that makes it interesting.
Grumpily,
-Brian, NCPR
Besides, if a poll really is “just a poll,” then how come they are suffocating much of the journalism out of reporting? How come journalists have become so over-reliant on them?
hermit thrush: “48-46-6 owens-doheny-hoffman”
Yeah. I forgot about that. 6% when he wasn’t even running. Thanks for the reminder.
I was referring to the special election. You know. The one where he ran third-party. Owens 49 – Hoffman 46.
Imagine if Hoffman had the GOP behind him, then.
that’s a fair enough point, jdm. but i’d also invite you to imagine what would have happened if hoffman hadn’t been on the ballot two years ago. then that moderate republican, running unopposed, would have probably won — or at least he’d have won just as assuredly as hoffman would have in 2009. yet somehow you take very asymmetrical lessons from these two example!
hermit thrush: “then that moderate republican, running unopposed, would have probably won”
We will see. I hope he does win. I don’t have any big urge to get out and vote for him, however.
People have said for a long time that the areas that are new to the district are very conservative, but when that has been put to the test in local elections where Democrats have been on close to equal footing in terms of money Democrats have proven to be able to win much of the time. And in state and national contests Democrats do fairly well.
I think it is time to reassess the idea that this is a Republican stronghold. There is a strong chance that the region will go Obama, Gillibrand, Owens, and Tarantino. If that happens I want reporters to stop calling this a conservative region.
With a state Conservative Party, the NY Republican Party is moderate. I don’t know about the new district but the old 23rd had thousands of union households. With all the anti-union bluster, I couldn’t figure out what the past couple of Republican candidates were thinking. How did they expect to win while alienating such a sizable part of the electorate. John McHugh always seemed to have considerable union support
Brian M, yes I did. It may be interesting to the horse race gazers to know whether people like Doheny or Owens on national security or whatever, but the only people that information actually helps is the campaign strategists. (The word I used initially was ‘useful’ not ‘interesting’). I know this sort of thing has become the bread and butter of modern political reporting but none of this really helps us one iota to decide which of those two or Hassig would make the best Congressman.
Polls are like cotton candy. It’s tasty and there’s no problem with having it once in a while. But it’s become the nutrition-free main course of mainstream journalism.
Brian (mofyc):
I agree, but it’s not like there’s been too many polls of this race. Indeed, this is the only public poll. That being said, I wish they were was more coverage of where candidate stand on the issues.