Why no Republican wave in northern New York?
Journalists love competitive elections and like a lot of my colleagues I’ve been convinced that Republicans have a very real shot at retaking their traditional stomping grounds in Upstate and northern New York.
With less than two weeks to go before election day, I’m not so sure anymore.
The latest polls from NY-20, NY-23, and NY-24 suggest that the Democratic incumbents in these districts remain relatively popular, and also find significantly higher support for Democratic policy ideas than in other parts of the country.
Wednesday’s survey, issued by the non-partisan The Hill newspaper, gives Mike Arcuri from Utica a 10% lead over Republican challenger Richard Hanna.
Democrats Bill Owens from Plattsburgh and Scott Murphy from Glens Falls enjoy similar advantages over their GOP rivals.
So why aren’t we seeing the same right-of-center-tea-party surge here that is unfolding in other parts of the US?
I have three theories.
First, the Republican candidates in these races aren’t fire breathers. Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna and Matt Doheny are all thoughtful, credible, experienced men. (Two are businessmen, the other a former Army officer.)
Yes, there’s been some mud-slinging in these races, and some inaccurate rhetoric, but by and large the campaigns have been driven by issues.
Why does that matter? Because when it comes to actual policies and programs, Democratic policies are still more popular (at least in New York) than Republican policies.
People here are more worried about jobs than about higher taxes; and they’re generally convinced that Democrats will do a better job helping to solve the unemployment crisis.
So when politicians appeal to voters’ heads, rather than their hearts, Democrats still have a slight advantage.
It doesn’t help that none of these three Republican candidates are particularly charismatic on the stump. All three are solid and competent and thoughtful, to be sure, but they’re not firing up rooms with their rhetoric.
My second theory is that many of the things that outrage voters in other parts of the US are already commonplace here. Government stimulus programs have kept Upstate New York afloat for a generation.
If it weren’t for public sector jobs, the economy would have collapsed years ago; and millions of our neighbors are already on some form of government-provided healthcare.
I’m not saying this is a good thing. But I do think it shapes people’s political attitudes.
Put simply, Republicans are shaking their fists at a system that provides a lifeline to lots of voters and their families.
Finally, the Democrats in all three of these races are competent, well-funded, well-liked and reasonably independent. Yes, Owens, Murphy and Arcuri voted with the Democrats on some key controversial issues.
But they’ve also broken ranks frequently, on everything from cap and trade to the health care reform act.
They’ve been embraced by groups like the National Rifle Association. And they’ve even picked up endorsements from some Republicans.
Their opponents will say that this is all wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing stuff; that all Democrats are, in their hearts, Nancy Pelosi enablers.
But so far at least voters don’t seem to be buying it.
Obviously, these three races remain competitive. The GOP is fighting hard to retake turf that they see as rightfully theirs. Polls have been funky enough this year that even a 10-point lead isn’t decisive.
In two out of the three races the Democrats are still winning under 50% of voters’ support, never a good sign for an incumbent.
Still, compared with the plight of their colleagues in other parts of the US, Democrats in the North Country appear relatively safe.
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Brian, once again you confuse Republican with Tea Party. Doheney for instance is not and to the best of my knowledge has not ever portrayed himself as a TP member or backer. What I’ve seen of him he does not stand for much of the TP type ideals.
Second, I agree with part of your post- these guys are one step above Doug Hoffman on the boring scale. Why expect a big outpouring of support for guys that are so white bread as to be indistinguishable from their rivals? Palidino is the only interesting candidate on the scene, an he simply scares most of you to death.
There will be no huge Republican wave in Northern NY, ever I think. Too many union players, too many self centered users and takers, too many apathetic people.
The national Republican Party is no longer in step with the thinking of the traditional Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower Republicans of northern New York. I know many life-long Republicans, who would NEVER have considered voting for a Democrat 20 years ago, who have started voting for Democrats.
Many times, it has been pointed out that the North Country sucks up more tax dollars than it sends out. If you look at where (or from whom) the populace gets their monthly checks, would you expect any large movement to less gov’t or reduced services. Wouldn’t that be analogous with biting the hand that feeds you?
A prison guard is not going to support spending cuts that could cause him to lose his job. Recipients of social programs are not going to advocate for the reduction of those services. Teachers are not going to push for the capping of property taxes if it will affect their salary.
Owens is a rubber-stamp for Pelosi. He wasn’t in office more than 10 minutes (it seems) before he added to the Obamacare Dem count without ever seeing, let alone reading, the actual text of the bill.
He sells us on a $300 benefit here, or a kick-back there. That’s akin to selling someone selling us on how nice the curtains looked on the Titanic.
That being said, I would add two bullet items to your theories.
1) The GOP party is dysfunctional and out-of-town with its constituency.
2) Doheny is not a true conservative (read: pro-choice).
If Doheny pulls off a victory, it will be because of apathy on the Dem voter brought on by a national wave of GOP optimism.
change “out-of-town” to “out-of-touch”
Actually “out of town” may be applicable, as well. According to the TV spot last night, he is on the beach somewhere spending our hard earned millions.
Pelosi is not running for anything in NYS. If you don’t like her, move to California so you can vote against her.
That may be, Pete, but she’s a witch. A weeeeettttccch! Burn her!
Yep, this election is a sleeper. Really, you’re wasting your time voting. Don’t sweat it. Dems will cruise to victory anyway.
I thought the witch was down in Maryland.
By the way, what’s wrong with being a witch? Don’t we have freedom of religion in this country or is that just for some?
We need to get rid of Pelosi. Members of her party are always voting in lock-step with her. Once Bohner is speaker, I’m sure all the Republicans will only vote with their leader 50% of the time.
When I lived in San Francisco and Nancy Pelosi was running for the first time for congress, she was considered one of the most conservative democrats running in the primary (I voted for her in both he primary and the general election). She has been a very effective Speaker. I only wish the democrats were as disciplined as the republicans.
Another possible reason for no republican wave in the north country; Doug Hoffman. The tea party excitement was last year, and the wave already crested.
If I were a republican, the fact that Cuomo, Shumer and Gillibrand are going to win easily would sort of dampen my enthusiasm.
2. I dont understand charges that “Democrat A votes 95% of the time with Pelosi.” Republican B votes 95% of the time with minority leader Boehner, I dont see much difference.,
Fred,
Maybe the reason is because Boehner isn’t a Witch but he might be a Warlock.
Maybe we Northcountry folks have good memories and remember which party got us into this mess.
Or maybe it’s because we’re not the bible belt and can’t be swayed by some slick talker claiming to be a good christian.
Or Maybe like you say Brian, we’ve been on the bottom of the pile so long That we’ve learned to decipher scare tactics and BS. When you have nothing left to lose, you don’t scare very easily. It’s a fact of human nature.
If that’s true Buddy, then why do people vote Democrat? They got us into this mess and their slick talkers are just as phony as the right side slick talkers.
Must be you really can fool most of the people most of the time.
Oh puhleeeze…you people need to wake up about the Tea Party Express…this party will fizzle out. They believe only in the constitution but not the laws or separation of church and state. Palin and company are a joke. They want you to believe that they are on your side and can’t even answer questions accurately like Joe Miller in Alaska where he had a journalist handcuffed 2 days ago! Don’t let them fool you….Obama is correcting what mess was left to him. Tea Partiers are a bunch of white racists.
I agree with buddy.
The fact is we don’t have much of a private sector here, tax breaks or tax incentives won’t change our economic situation one way or the other as there is not enough private sector employment to make a difference. What will change our situation for better or worse is a reduction or an increase in government services and payments and changes in farm policies.
Those are the facts, I don’t like them; I think they reflect 50 years of bad government policies; over-regulation, over taxation, and corruption that upstate NY has suffered for.
From the Census Bureau 2009 estimate.
US population up 9.1%
NY population up 3%
The state is going to lose at least one congressional seat and the 23rd looks like a good candidate. More from the Census Bureau:
Madison County 0.7%
Oneida County -1.9%
Oswego County -0.8%
Lewis County -2.9%
Jefferson County +6.2%
St. Lawrence County -2.0%
Franklin County -1.7%
Hamilton County -8.4%
Fulton County 0.0%
Clinton County 2.2%
Essex County -3.0%
There is only one county, Jefferson County, that grew faster in population then the rest of the state and none that grew as fast as the U.S. population as a whole. Of the 9 counties seven had zero or negative population growth.
Bottom line is whoever wins is going likely running against an incumbent in from another district come the 2012 election. I wouldn’t discount the possibility that the 23rd is split in half and merged with the 20th and 25th districts.
20th will be split too.
marc, c’mon, the tea party is a lot of things, but they’re not a bunch of white racists.
If they do the split hopefully we could advocate for a true North Country district, i.e. St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, Essex, Jefferson, Herkimer and Hamilton.
What is more likely though is that they will split us down the middle the western half with a Syracuse district and the eastern half with an Albany district. That would effectively end the North Country as having any sort of political voice.
Bret, I’d like to read your reasoning for saying the Dems got us into this mess, When the free fall started long before Obama took office, and “W” was still in. I’m a registered independant and will vote for who i believe is the best candidate for the job, I don’t understand why some Dems or reps can only see in blue or red and not be realistic in their reasoning and loyalty.
Marc, please provided actual proof to back any of your ignorant claims about the TP.
Funny how Bret is always asking OTHER people to provide proof.
Sorry about the double post.
Buddy- if you want to claim the Republicans “got us into this mess” then you have to include the Democrats too. The current economic issue was more or less caused by spending and borrowing practices, by the housing bubble bursting, by banking practices that are shady at best and by taking a production based economy and transforming it into a service based economy. The problem goes back far beyond “W”. Look at the causes and look at who the players were at the gov’t level. It was both parties, neither tried to stop the problems for the most part because they benefited too much from it. The current crop of Republicans desperately attempting to remake themselves as fiscal conservatives were right in the middle of it a few years back. And the same goes for the Democrats whose only defense is Plan B- BLAME BUSH!
The problem is career politicians whose biggest concern is staying in office and amassing as much wealth and power as possible while there. You want to keep voting that type of scum in, from either party, go right ahead. I have little use for RINO Republicans and less for Democrats. But you cannot honestly claim our current problems were all the doings of “W”. His biggest failure was not learning to say “NO.”