Did President Obama just dodge a political bullet?
Just watched New Jersey Governor Chris Christie give a pass on the 2012 presidential race.
It was a very Mario Cuomo like experience in that some politicians never look more presidential than when announcing that they’re not running for president.
But seriously: As Gov. Christie gave his party a firm No, it was a performance that showed just how much difficulty President Barack Obama would have had competing with this particular Republican.
Christy sounded grounded, sane, focused, and committed to good governance. He also just seemed comfortable in his own skin. That means a lot when you’re heading out for the long campaign slog.
Meanwhile, Texas Governor Rick Perry continues to slump, falling into a tie with”second-tier” GOP candidate Herman Cain.
Which leads me to a final quick observation: It’s kind of fun to imagine a world in which an African American claims the Republican presidential nomination to run against Mr. Obama, right?
Could it happen? That may be up to Mitt Romney. As always,k your comments welcome.
Tags: election12, politics
So this means Christie is running right???
Once you factor out the south Perry and Cain cannot beat Romney and he will win the nomination.
Romney/Cain vs Obama/Biden
If he wasn’t a mormon it would be a slam dunk.
simple answer: no
Reason? It was one frickin’ speech. Let’s see how he would have done in a month after being in campaign mode for three straight months.
More reason: Christie has no need to kowtow to the base in order to refuse the nomination. Everyone else has to thread a very small needle to ensure the base is satisfied. Perry has dropped in the polls since he called his opponents’ immigration stance “heartless”. Too bad “heartless” is the GOP base’s policy on immigration.
Christie also has some skeletons in his closet. See here
Oh, and Cain? He’s out, after chiding Perry for the ‘niggerhead’ rock issue, he lost all support from white working class southerners.
A month ago Rick Perry was thought to be the GOP savior, and his poll numbers have eroded. The same thing could have happened with Christie. It is way too early to get a sense of all the twists and turns of the next year. If conservatives go the “anybody but Romney” route, I am not sure who they will turn to at this point. I don’t think it will be Cain. Maybe Jeb Bush.
I didn’t watch the speech, but Christie has been doing well in the limelight for months. More relevant, I think, is that when he had the best shot at becoming president that anyone can hope for, and better than the ones people like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had, he turned it down. He doesn’t have the belly for it. And his jibes at Obama as a failed leader are as lame as could be from a guy who doesn’t dare try for the prize Obama captured.
Christie doesn’t have the belly for it? Tell me you weren’t kidding, Will? That was supposed to be my line.
Anyhow, at least Christie proves he is smarter than those who are running for President. I can’t imagine any sane person wanting the job.
The president is on the ropes things are going to be worse when the campaigning really kicks in. I think he is toast. Anyone should be able to beat him. How can anyone think this country is going in the right direction under this president? He can try and blame it on the past few months where he didn’t have a super majority or he can try and blame it on the last president or floods or earthquakes but in the end the blame game won’t win him a second term.
“Christy sounded grounded, sane, focused, and committed to good governance.”
So what makes you think he would have made it through the Republican primary?
As for Brian’s question, Did President Obama just dodge a political bullet? No, this is really about the GOP. Christie was perceived as someone who might the gap between the traditional Republicans and the tea party wing of the party. But there is no guarantee he could have done that. What happens with this split now? If a “anybody but Romney” movement develops, the GOP is perfectly capable of nominating someone unelectable in 2012.
If you are a progressive I have to believe that you rue the day that you shut the door on Hillary. She at least would have governed rather than simply have been elected and then left the nation to the not so tender mercies of Reid and Pelosi.
If Cain gets the nomination, it will only take a small percentage of the black vote to come away from Obama to seal it for Cain.
If the economy does what the economy appears to be doing, Obama is toast no matter what.
Hillary’s a closet republican and a war hawk. She’s one of the things that have taken this administration in the wrong direction.
Now Christie,…perhaps he’s as smart as McCain was. Who’d want to be president now, with the economy in the dumps and the global markets about to crash. If the Republicans just dither about with goofy candidates for the next year, then it all falls on Obama’s head, and Christie, or whoever can run in 2016, without having to face Obama.
I think he did indeed dodge one bullet. I mean I don’t think he is in the clear at all particularly when now it looks as if we may enter another recession and even increasing unemployment in 2012.
However Gov, Christy has not finished his term and unlike many of the climbers and self promoters who take the stage today I think the Gov really wants to finish his term. A 1/2 term Gov is not ready to run for President or be President. I think when you quite what you were elected to do just to promote your own career it is a sign of a character defect and in some ways is defrauding the voters. Christy is young and if he gets himself in shape a little he will be around a while and take another shot. But I really like the guy and we have not heard the last of him.
I don’t know I kind of like Cain, I like his sense of humor and the fact that he can joke around about this stuff a little, I just can’t see him as the nominee though, he does not have enough fund raising power.
If he ran, Christy would likely have been the next president. His speeches berating public sector excess would have energized the base and even allow him to do well among white working private sector Democrats.
It doesn’t matter that Christie may have brought the Republican base together. The upcoming election, like every presidential election for the past couple of decades, will be won in the middle. And what will win the middle will be the Independents.
Obama has to make the case that it’s time to hire a new Congress that won’t make their sole purpose in Washington to thwart his agenda at the cost of the middle class as compared with hiring a new President that will continue to destroy the middle class. He has to remind voters of this, specifically, Independents, every chance he gets.
With regard to high unemployment, I think Independents understand that no president could have seriously improved the economy in one term given the devastation it sustained previous to him/her taking office. In turn, the Republicans have not done themselves any favors by making it very clear their goal for his entire first term was to put one man out of a job at the expense of thousands upon thousands of others losing theirs. In the end, no matter who the Republicans nominate, I still think it’s Obama’s election to lose.
Hopefully independents understand that Republicans in the House seem to be doing everything they can to prevent the economy from improving. I don’t understand why the TEA party doesn’t see this.
“The upcoming election, like every presidential election for the past couple of decades, will be won in the middle. And what will win the middle will be the Independents. ”
This is correct. And currently the president has only 30% of the independents on his side. Down 10 percentage points since March.
Toast at this point. There is a small chance that things could improve but it isn’t looking good.
From a recent poll:
“”But the most daunting details in this latest survey may be what independents think: just 9 percent said they think things are headed down the right road, while 77 percent said things are moving in the wrong direction.””
Hard to imagine that these folks would vote to continue down the path we are on?
You have to be careful how you interpret polls like that. If I had been asked the same question, I would have responded in the same way… but for vastly different reasons than I assume you are attributing to those who answered this poll.
You only have two paths in this country. And while some may not be happy with the current path – that doesn’t mean they will vote for the other. Their unhappiness is because the current path has not been different enough from the other path.
Paul,
I think most people agree this country is headed down the wrong road. The real question is who independents blame the most for this. Personally I think they blame Republicans in Congress; which benefits Obama. His only hope in winning reelection is to capitalize on this thought at every opportunity.
“Their unhappiness is because the current path has not been different enough from the other path.”
Dave, How do you know that??
But yes you do need to be careful with polls.
“Personally I think they blame Republicans in Congress; which benefits Obama. His only hope in winning reelection is to capitalize on this thought at every opportunity.”
The data in that poll does not support this idea. How can you blame the republicans in Congress that have only been there for less than a year. It seems like much more blame (if the blame is on these guys anyway) would lie with the democratic super majority that had been there the preceding two years. Over the last 10 months we have just tried to stop the bleeding that started two years earlier. The debt ceiling debacle and the crisis that followed may have been avoided if the congress had done more when they had a super majority. They chose to punt and here we are. New leadership is the only option forward at this point.
I should say they chose to punt on debt reduction. The rest of the agenda was pushed through. The auto bailout, the stimulus package, the health care bill, financial reform, and other items all were approved. The only problem was that they had an negative effect on the economy, obviously increased the debt problem and here we are. Blame it on the last 10 months?? I don’t know if the president can pull that off.
“Dave, How do you know that??”
How do you not know it?? You are the one who made an assumption here. You assumed a poll where people expressed unhappiness in the current direction of the country meant they wanted the other party in power. I’m saying that is not necessarily the case.
I gave an example, I am someone who is not happy with the current direction of the country, and would have answered that poll the exact same way as the 77% did. In no way shape or form does that mean I want a return to the conservative policies that I think got us here. I want the exact opposite – my dissatisfaction is with the fact that we have not moved far enough away from those policies.
In addition, similarly misread polls in recent elections – such as the Scott Brown exit polls – once examined, showed exactly this phenomenon. The initial read on those exit polls showed that voters were mad at Obama and everyone assumed this meant therefore they wanted conservative policies instead. However, once the data was parsed, the real story came out. A good portion of dem and indp voters said they were mad that Obama had not gone far enough. See the difference? People answering a poll question the same way, but for vastly different reasons.
Dissatisfaction with the current state of things does not necessarily mean you want to stop, turn around, and head in the opposite direction.
You spoke of “data” not supporting this idea. Let’s see it.
Paul,
The Republican LEADERSHIP, not necessarily recent members of Congress, have been obstructionists since Obama took office. They’ve professed as much. I think the public in general, and many independents understand this.
With regard to some of the items you listed, nearly all of them were passed with the support of Republicans after things they demanded were included in the legislation. The Health Care bill, certainly. And the stimulus was 50% tax cuts Republicans demanded in order to support its passage. Most people I speak with realize that Obama has caved to the obstructionists of the Republican party simply to get some of what he wants. I think Dave above illustrated this frustration with the Republican leadership perfectly and is an attitude shared by the majority of the public.
“How do you not know it?? You are the one who made an assumption here. You assumed a poll where people expressed unhappiness in the current direction of the country meant they wanted the other party in power. I’m saying that is not necessarily the case.”
Dave the poll asked the questions and got the answers I didn’t make any assumptions. I just read the results. I take them with the same grain of salt as anyone. They asked all the “independents” in the same poll who they would vote for and they overwhelmingly said a republican candidate or another candidate. A small percentage said they would vote for the president.
“I think Dave above illustrated this frustration with the Republican leadership perfectly and is an attitude shared by the majority of the public.”
The same frustration is felt toward the president and the democratic senate that isn’t a republican phenomena.
Look at right now. GOP leaders (and the president) have called for an up or down vote of the presidents “jobs” bill right now in the Senate. The democratic leader of the senate says not right now??
Dave, here is the data.
http://www.wnd.com/files/2011/09/SeptPoliticsQ1.pdf
He can run on a platform of “most people think I am doing a bad job but someone else might do a worse job” but it isn’t a strong one.
The number one issue is jobs. When your choice may be a guy like Mitt Romney with his experience against the president and his results it will be interesting to see what happens.
Dave, you see that as “return to conservative policies” I see it as choosing a different path entirely. Maybe folks will vote for four more years of what we have now but it seems like a poor choice at this point. Maybe things will change in the next 18 months, hopefully for the better. It has been a fun discussion but I better get back to work.
The interesting thing I think about Christie’s decision is that he did not want to abandon his voters and his state in the middle of what he was just elected to do. I believe that really is a major reason he didn’t blow off New Jersey to run. What do we think of our leaders? Are they just all biding their time for their own ego’s, are the positions we elect them to merely a notch on their own resume?
I mean ego is part of being a politician I understand that, but I frankly think it should be illegal to run for office when you have already been elected to another office and taken an oath to serve that office and people.
Does anyone really think that Sarah Palin really cared about the plight of Alaska or Barak Obama really cared about the voters of Illinois? We get so used to people who are just about serving their own ego’s that when we find someone who actually has some honor to do what he or she was elected to do we find it strange.
Liked Christie one second after he told Schumer to mind his own business, on the other side of the Hudson.
Christie should run, but as Mervel suggests, when he finishes the first responsibilities he promised to N.J.
I really think our process makes it almost impossible for the best people to be candidates for the President. From the money needed, to the family and personal root canals, I mean people just go over these guys lives with a fine tooth comb.
I wonder if some of our greatest leaders like Lincoln or TR or FDR or Washington would have been able to be President today, or would have even wanted the job?