Here’s an interesting nugget from last week’s detailed Pew Survey: Democrats are actually doing worse among independent voters in the Northeast than in the Midwest or Western districts.
Likely independent voters in this part of the US favor the GOP by a whopping 12-point margin with just over a month before the midterm elections.
Pundits such as EJ Dionne have suggested that the Northeast will be the Republican Party’s “Achilles heel” as conservatives fight to retake the House.
This from Dionne’s latest WaPo column:
“When we do retain the majority,” said Rep. Dan Maffei, a hopeful 42-year-old freshman Democrat from Upstate New York, “people are going to look at the map and see that the Northeast held.”
As Dionne points out, overall poll numbers still generally favor Democrats in this part of the country.
But the erosion of support among independents is something to watch, especially in places like New Hampshire and the North Country of New York.
If this “firewall” does crumble, the GOP’s gains could be truly epic.