Why horse-race stuff sometimes matters

February 11th, 2012 by Brian Mann

A lot of In Boxers hate it when I drift into discussions of horse-racey stuff.  Who's up, who's down, who's got the most money or the biggest organization.

I understand why.  In politics, things are most interesting when we're talking about ideas, policies, the underlying currents of a society that are translated into visible form by a political campaign.

So why do I circle back so often to the tactical, strategic, "politics-as-strategy-game" stuff?  Because it matters.

If American politics show us anything, it's that ideas aren't enough.  Often, the most nuanced and sophisticated thinkers are marginalized because they can't work within the vast, byzantine, weird system that is our democracy.

It can also be fascinating stuff.  Take, for example, Mitt Romney, the on-again-off-again frontrunner in the GOP primary.

Here's a guy who, on first blush, seems to have it all.  He looks good on TV, and he has a photogenic family.  He's scandal-free.  He has a nearly limitless supply of campaign cash, and a brilliant national political team.

He also has a platform that is a good, general fit for the modern Republican Party.   It's very conservative, but not whacky conservative.

But so far, the missing link has been a horse-racey element:  Romney himself is a clunky campaigner.  He hasn't been able to find the rhythm and comfort-zone that builds into the energy that a Ronald Reagan or a Bill Clinton projects.

And generally speaking you need that kind of intangible spark to topple a sitting president.

Consider Romney's performance at the CPAC conference this week.  You could feel him reaching for that elevating moment, that I'm-one-of-you-in-my-heart connection.

And then he dropped in one awkward tone-deaf word — "severely" — that reminded everyone in the room that whatever his politics, Mitt Romney just isn't a natural.

“I was a severely conservative Republican governor,” he said.

It sounds innocent enough, but conservatives don't like to think of themselves as "severe."  In their playbook, they're the normal ones, the Americans who cleave to tradition and core values.

All politicians make gaffes.  But great campaigners don't commit so many of them that they keep tripping up their own energy, defusing the focus of their message.

This may be one reason Rick Santorum is surging.  Whatever his politics, whatever the state of his fundraising and his organization, he looks comfortable up there.  He looks like he's having fun.  He looks like he means it.

He might not have the pedigree.  But right now, Santorum simply looks like a stronger, faster horse than Romney.  And this is a race that once again looks very, very competitive.

Maybe you really can have it all…when you're 9 years old.

February 10th, 2012 by Brian Mann

So check out these guys going at it with fiddle, guitar, and banjo.  And then check out the awesome Millenium Falcon model on the night stand by their bed.

If I were nine years old, could pick like that, and I had that outrageously cool, nerdy toy, I'd pretty much know that life was good.

The coolest journey you'll take today

February 10th, 2012 by Brian Mann

Zoom in and out from infinity to quarks

NCPR's June Peoples shared this around on Facebook and I know a lot of In Boxers will find it incredibly, incredibly fantastic (no, that's not too many incrediblies…)

Click through on the link here.

Nanu nanu from Saranac Lake

February 10th, 2012 by Brian Mann

Space alien invasion indeed.

Yesterday I was having lunch at Blue Moon Cafe in Saranac Lake and Aggie Pelltieri dropped by to talk up this weekend's Winter Carnival parade, even offering a sneak peak of  one distinctly awesome float.

I'm forbidden to reveal details, but people are pulling out all the stops.

In case you missed it, National Geographic rated Saranac Lake's carnival as the second best in the world back in December.   Not bad bragging rights.

The town is buzzing and so is our house, with wife Susan joining a new "Canoodler" drill team that will march and cavort in the parade with paddles while pretending to be from France.  (If you come, that'll make more sense.)

My son Nicholas will march with the high school band and I'll be up on the judge's platform MCing the parade outside Harrietstown hall.

As NCPR's resident sci-fi-fantasy nerd, I've been thrilled with the theme's of Winter Carnival the last two years, Medieval Times and now Space Alien Invasion.  What could be better?

The costumes have been awesome.

So if you're fed up with the lack of winter, come get your dose of Winter Carnival in Saranac Lake this weekend.  Here's the schedule of events.

It looks like a good cold weekend…and even a chance for snow!

Morning Read: Redistricting delays "cloud" North Country politics

February 10th, 2012 by Brian Mann

A major political fight is brewing over state Senate and Assembly district lines drawn up by politicians in Albany as part of the census-redistricting process.

Critics, including Governor Andrew Cuomo, described the political map released last month as biased in favor of protecting incumbents.

A court challenge is all but certain and the LATFOR commission hasn't even released congressional boundaries yet.

The Watertown Daily Times is reporting today on what all that uncertainty means for candidates hoping to jump into races.

“I can’t imagine anybody who’s considering a serious run for any legislative seat in the state of New York not weighing the issue of redistricting,” said Brian S. McGrath, a Lewis County Democrat who ran unsuccessfully for the Assembly in 2010 and won’t run again this year.

“Frankly, it’s probably the No. 1 consideration for most people contemplating runs at the moment. It was without question at the top of the list of things I was discussing with people in Albany when weighing my political future.”

Because potential challengers don't know what districts will look like (or, in some cases, whether old districts will even still exist) it's difficult to fundraise, build political networks, or secure petitions to get on the ballot.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking, with the primary election for House races set for just five months away.

Cuomo Administration and (part of) NYSCOPBA reach a tentative deal

February 9th, 2012 by Nora Flaherty

The Cuomo administration and a portion of the New York State Correctional Officers and Police Benevolent Association (according the the Albany Times-Union's "Capitol Confidential" blog, "the vast majority of them are Office of Mental Health employees who provide security for facilities that house the dangerous and disturbed") say they've got a tentative deal on a long-delayed new contract.

It's apparently (not surprisingly) a complicated deal. Here are some of the highlights:

They say those members will get some layoff protections. Pay will be frozen for the years 2011 through 2013. There are retroactive increases of 3% for 2009, when the previous contract expired, and 4% for 2010. The deal calls for 2% raises in 2014 and 2015.

The deal also includes nine furlough days over this year and next, with pay for four days later repaid. That's projected to save $4.3 million.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo and union president Donn Rowe said today it's a fair deal that reflects hard times. It's still subject to a vote by 26,000 union members. Oh, and by the way, those covered by this deal represent just 1600 of those 26,000.

Here's a link to the "Capitol Confidential" post, which provides more detail.

Mr. Obama's (akwardly) conservative credentials

February 9th, 2012 by Brian Mann

One factor that complicates President Barack Obama's re-election bid in 2012 is the fact that he is, despite the hot-blooded rhetoric on the right, a Democrat who has embraced a laundry list of conservative ideas and policies.

Indeed, some of his signature acc0mplishments during his first four years are borrowed from the Republican playbook, a fact that confuses and disenchants many in his own movement's base.

Here are the ten accomplishments that lie at the heart of Mr. Obama's right of center street cred.

1.  Down-sizing government.

I know, I know.  You've heard over and over that Mr. Obama ballooned the deficit and spent trillions inflating the Federal bureaucracy.

In fact, a huge portion of the various "stimulus" programs launched over the last three years were aimed at propping up private sector businesses (through big public works projects).  Bales of cash also went to pay for enormous tax cuts or to bankroll unemployment payments for individuals.

That money didn't go to expand the size of government.

On the contrary, the big untold story during Mr. Obama's first term is that overall government employment in the US dropped dramatically — another 270,000 cuts in the last year alone. And he's not done.

Mr. Obama has proposed massive cuts in the number of soldiers on the government payroll going forward, and his administration has also signaled that it will go along with huge declines in US Postal Service enrollment.

This "success" at fostering a leaner government would be a major re-election meme for a Republican.   But for a Democrat, it's a mixed bag at best.  Many public sector unions are deeply unhappy with the Administration's inability to help fund more government jobs at the Federal state and local level.

2.  Killing terrorists.

It's not just that we got Osama bin Laden on this President's watch.  Team Obama has pursued an incredibly aggressive campaign of aerial drone, special ops and ground force operations against a wide variety of terror cells, from Africa to the Middle East.

Last month, Navy Seals rescued hostages from a terror camp in Somalia, scoring another big symbolic victory.

But behind the scenes, US forces have been pounding targets, perhaps even participating in the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists.

This is another of those successes that would be a major talking point for a Republican candidate, but Mr. Obama's base is nervous about drone attacks, and the continued operation of the prison camp at Guantanamo.

3.  Deporting illegal aliens.

The conservative media has dined out for years on the notion that Mr. Obama coddles illegal aliens.  But the numbers tell a different story.  This administration has deported more than 400,000 undocumented workers a year, every year, since 2009.

That's more than George W. Bush or any previous president managed to accomplish.  Indeed, this White House has presided over such a massive round-up of illegals that the deportation system is glutted to overcapacity.

Again, this is a "talking point" that Mr. Obama can only take up very delicately.  He hopes to win landslide levels of Hispanic support in his 2012 bid.

4.  Energy production

Again, I get it.  There have been some really high profile "liberal" moments for Mr. Obama.  He talks about renewable energy.  He put the Keystone XL oil pipeline project on hold.

But remember, this is a president who — in the weeks before the Deepwater Horizon disaster — greenlighted more offshore oil drilling.

Domestic oil production is at its highest level now that we've seen in 8 years and the country has emerged as a major natural gas producer — a fact Mr. Obama trumpeted in his state of the union address.

And for the first time since 1978 (more than thirty years!) the Federal government is set to approve two new nuclear reactors on Mr. Obama's watch, both located in Georgia.

Again, the political fall-out of these positions is complex.  Conservatives say the President hasn't gone nearly far enough, while some of Mr. Obama's supporters in the environmental community are furious.

5.  Being an old fashioned American capitalist.

Mr. Obama used a lot of government-and-taxpayer money during the depths of the recession to prop up major American businesses, from Wall Street banks to Detroit automakers.  His critics called that socialism.

But three years later, the worst you can say about the bail-outs is that they look sort of like pro-big business corporate welfare.  (As opposed to, say, a deliberate campaign of nationalization.)

And there is a growing argument to be made that timely interventions by Mr. Obama (and by his predecessor George W. Bush) saved major American companies that have once again emerged as vibrant, private-sector job-creators.

What's undeniable is that this administration's economic team comes from the business end of the political spectrum, not the lefty-labor side.

Conservatives give him zero credit for this, and neither do Occupiers, who are incensed that a Democratic president is so closely aligned with Wall Street.

This is only a partial list, obviously.  Other big chunks of Mr. Obama's early policy platform — cap-and-trade carbon programs, insurance mandates for healthcare coverage — came straight from the Republican Party's playbook.

The question as the campaign heats up is how these positions play in voters' minds.

Will Mr. Obama's non-ideological approach play well with independents?  Will it be harder for a Republican moderate like Mitt Romney to carve out meaningful distinctions on the campaign trail?

And what about rank-and-file Democrats?  Will they come out in force to back a President whose first term included big agenda items that would make a Republican administration proud?

Morning Read 2: NY Times weighs in with story on Big Tupper resort

February 9th, 2012 by Brian Mann

The New York Times ran a major story on the Adirondack Club and Resort project.  As this is the first report that many influential New Yorkers will see about the development, I thought it was worth noting.

By and large, the story reported by Lisa Foderaro is fairly low-key, taking stock of the conflicts but also acknowledging that the decision was perhaps a bit less controversial that might have been expected.  Here's a sample:

In the early decades of the Adirondack Park Agency, which was formed in 1971, tensions around private-property rights occasionally turned violent.

That pitch of anger has subsided. Now even some environmental groups talk about the importance of development. One such group, the Adirondack Council, endorsed the resort plan in the end.

Check out the full article here.

Morning Read: Snowmobile season "brutal"

February 9th, 2012 by Brian Mann

I've been touching bases with winter sports and tourism people the last week, just to see how they're doing, and the mood out there ranges from "hanging in there" to downright "ugh."  Particularly hard hit are snowmobile-related businesses.

More sleds are getting out on trails in some parts of the North Country and Vermont, but snow cover remains remarkably patchy to nonexistent in many areas.  This from the Glens Falls Post Star.

Patti Stetson, owner of the Black Bear Restaurant in Pottersville, called the drop in business this winter "brutal."

…Stetson, whose Route 9 eatery is on the North Warren Snowmobile Club trail system, said business is off 50 percent or so, which has forced her to cut back hours for staff members.

And with fewer customers, tips aren't great for those who are working.

"We're right down to a skeleton crew, and even the ones who are working are hurting," Stetson said.

Similar pain is being felt in Vermont, according to the Burlington Free Press.

“It’s been a challenging winter,” said Alexis Nelson, trails administrator for the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers. “Winter is having an identity crisis,” she said.

As of this week, VAST is exactly halfway through its 16-week season, and only a very limited number of snowmobile trails are open.

There is limited snowmobiling in some high-elevation places, such as near Jay and Eden. “But you can’t do a 150-mile loop, and that’s what people like to do,” Nelson said.

WKTV interviewed folks at New York State Snowmobile Association's annual meeting earlier this month in Rome, NY, and the mood was downright bleak.
NYSSA President Gary Broderick says the mild winter is having a major negative impact, first for snowmobiler's fun, and second for the businesses that support the sport.
He said, "it's been a terrible year. It's been very hard on the snowmobile clubs that build the trails throughout New York and it's very hard on the business that support snowmobiling and benefit from snowmobiling across the state."
So what are you seeing out there?  I'd particularly like to hear from parts of the central and western Adirondacks, and the Tug Hill, where snowmobile tourism is an essential part of the winter economy.  I'd also love to hear from business owners.
How's the sledding season look from where you sit?

Morning Read: Climate back on the agenda?

February 8th, 2012 by Brian Mann

This morning the Kingston Ontario Whig-Standard is reporting that Ontario's environment minister thinks climate change needs to be back at the center of the agenda.

“The climate is changing, it’s measurable right now and it will accelerate and change from the emissions we’ve already put out and will continue to put out,” [Gord Miller, the province’s environmental commissioner] said.

“We’re going to have more severe weather and we’re going to have more severe problems and we have to plan for that and look at our infrastructure.”

This includes implementing changes to roads by adding culverts to accommodate more water from intense storms, he said.

In an interview this morning with NCPR, activist and author Bill McKibben argues that groups like his 350.0rg are once again gaining some traction on climate issues, including President Barack Obama's recent decision to cancel a controversial Canadian oil pipeline project.

Also, this week, state officials in New York state are hosting a national conference on the impacts of climate change on plant and animal species.

The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy is geared toward providing a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and science-based practices—to reduce negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and the natural systems they depend.

Federal, state and tribal partners, with input from many diverse groups across the nation, are collaborating to develop a common strategy to respond to the challenges a changing climate poses for our nation’s species, ecosystems and natural resources.

So what do you think?  Climate has been on the back burner as the US and other countries grappled with the recession.

In the midst of this warm winter and in the wake of epic floods, is it time to revisit the global warming debate?