I've been on the road this week, listening to a lot of conservative talk radio, and it got me thinking about doomsday scenarios. (Rush and Glenn will do that to you.)

2012 Doomsday
This Sunday, I want to roll out what I see as the end-time-worst-case forecast for the Republican Party, as we march deeper into the 2012 elections. (Next week, I'll do a similar think-aloud about scenarios that should keep Democrats awake at night.)
So here's how 2012 could go deeply, terribly wrong for the GOP:
A HEALTHY ECONOMY
By most mainstream measures, the economy has been trending upward for the last two years. Unemployment just dropped again and if Mr. Obama catches a break, we could be down below 8% by election day.
There are signs the hopeful trend could be accelerating.
If this continues, the doom-and-gloom scenario offered by Republicans, including Mitt Romney, will sound, well, doom-and-gloomy. Most politics-watchers will tell you that American voters prefer optimism to sky-is-falling rhetoric.
But it could be very difficult for Mr. Romney to tweak or nuance his message, because the Republican base is wedded to the idea that this administration is an anti-capitalist juggernaut, eager to doom free enterprise.
They don't want better ideas for running the country. They want an indictment of a rogue regime.
DITCHING ROMNEY
If the right-wingers who make up the GOP's core think their candidate is waffling (again) on his red meat message, we could see real disaffection come November. Worst case scenario? A full scale-revolt.
Remember, the right loves to thrash Democrats. But they love to punish moderate Republicans even more.
If the Republican candidate is Mr. Romney, this eventuality is made more plausible by the fact that he is a Mormon. His faith is viewed with deep distrust, bordering on real animus, by many within the evangelical movement.
(A late January poll in Florida found that four out of ten likely Republican voters either think Mormons aren't Christians or they "aren't sure.")
A collapse in confidence at the top of the ticket could bring a cascade of damage in congressional races around the country, not least because the GOP brand is already in bad shape.
A COLLAPSING BRAND
Consider this: A poll issued last week by NBC and the Wall Street Journal found that Barack Obama has a net positive public image of +11 — meaning he's liked more than he's disliked by a significant margin.
The closest Republican on the list? That was Rick Santorum, who scored an anemic -1. Mitt Romney was at -5 and the Republican Party as a whole was -13, two points below the Occupy Wall Street Movement.
(The Tea Party movement, by the way, scored a net negative rating of -15.)
That means the GOP is already on very thin ice with key swing voting groups, including independents and Hispanics.
Their dissatisfaction could be sharpened disastrously by the fact that the party has entered 2012 with a gaggle of bizarre and potentially discrediting hangers-on.
These days, Sarah Palin seems downright stateswoman-like. The Hermain Cain-Donald Trump-Michelle Bachman weirdness of the Republican primary took things to a whole new level.
And it's not just on the fringes. Just last week, Team Romney apparently thought it was a good idea to have their guy endorsed publicly by Mr. Trump.
A public embrace from a man who ranks near the Kardashians on America's pop-culture scale isn't exactly a surefire way to look reassuringly presidential.
And because conservative power is rapidly fragmenting into a constellation of media empires, Super-PACs, and powerful personalities (the Koch brothers, Karl Rove, Rupert Murdoch, Trump etc.) it will be difficult to put that mess back in a box again.
A RESURGENT BARACK OBAMA
But in an everything-goes-wrong election, it won't just be Republicans bungling. It will also mean that Mr. Obama will find his voice again as a politician.
And there are signs that this could be happening. After two years of professorial rhetoric, he is once again tossing off zingers like "Don't muck it up."
Meanwhile, conservative efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, strip unions of collective bargaining rights, and roll back gay rights could mobilize, energize, and unify Mr. Obama's base.
LONG-TERM DAMAGE?
S0 let's sum up.
In a worst-case scenario year, Republicans could emerge into the national spotlight with a weak presidential candidate that no one really likes very much.
Their standard-bearer could be surrounded at the Republican National Convention by a zany cast of supporting characters with a menu of gloomy, out-there ideas. (Gold standard, anyone? A new moonbase, maybe? How about mass deportation of undocumented workers?)
That b-list team could find itself facing a strong, energized incumbent president, who by contrast looks steady, competent, optimistic and grounded in the problems of average Americans.
If everything goes wrong for the GOP, the outcome will be four more years of Barack Obama, which could well mean that he gets one more pick to the Supreme Court.
But it could also mean a Republican majority in the House whittled down sharply, as well as continued Democratic majorities in the Senate.
Perhaps most importantly, we could see the long-term alienation of crucial voter blocks (Hispanics, independent women, young people) that will shape American politics for generations to come.
(Next weekend in doomsday scenarios: What if the Occupy movement occupies the Democratic convention?)